DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough across the Central and Eastern U.S. A ridge is building in the West and another ridge continues to move south over Canada. Both of the ridges will help to shift the trough off the East Coast early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

While the harsh weather will leave, systems will still move through Canada and the U.S. next week. Eventually a trough will return to eastern Canada at the end of next week, which will threaten more cold air for the eastern half of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree about the timing and impact of various systems through next week as well as the scope of the cold air for those east of the Rockies. I will use a blend, but favor the American, which favors more widespread cold for mid-February.

A couple of systems will move through next week. One in the middle of next week could bring some organized precipitation to the U.S. A stronger clipper may move through late next week or weekend and bring down some colder air, particularly across the East. Otherwise, temperatures will trend warmer next week, though areas across the South and East will take longer to warm up because of the recent heavy snow and the East Coast is not likely to see above-normal temperatures before the cold air returns.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...78 AT WOODLAND HILLS, CA, FILLMORE, CA, 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MALIBU, CA, AND 3 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SIMI VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...23 BELOW ZERO AT WELLESLEY ISLAND, NY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SALEM, OR AND SEATTLE, WA 0.21 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough across the Central and Eastern U.S. A ridge is building in the West and another ridge continues to move south over Canada. Both of the ridges will help to shift the trough off the East Coast early next week. While the harsh weather will leave, systems will still move through Canada and the U.S. next week and eventually a trough will return to eastern Canada at the end of next week, which will threaten more cold air for the eastern half of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree about the timing and impact of various systems through next week as well as the scope of the cold air for those east of the Rockies. I will use a blend, but favor the American, which favors more widespread cold for mid-February.

A couple of systems will move through next week. One in the middle of next week could bring some organized precipitation to the U.S. A stronger clipper may move through late next week or weekend and bring down some colder air, particularly across the East. Otherwise, temperatures will trend warmer next week, though areas across the South and East will take longer to warm up because of the recent heavy snow and the East Coast is not likely to see above-normal temperatures before the cold air returns.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A burst of cold air moving down through the Dakotas is clashing with warmer air trying to move into Montana, creating a burst of snow across the middle of the region that could be moderate for Thursday and Friday. Another clipper moving through this weekend will flush out the cold air and bring in both a burst of mixed precipitation and warmer air that will stick around for most of next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air will be reinforced by one more cold front moving through on Friday, which continues the cold this weekend before temperatures eventually rise above normal next week to help melt off the snow. Some wheat areas with heavy snow cover should have some protection from the cold while other areas will see some damage. The cold will stress cattle for a while longer yet as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Clippers continue to bring more cold air through the weekend. There is not much wheat that is exposed with low snow cover, but there are some areas that may sustain some damage. A clipper moving through Sunday and Monday will usher in some warmer air for next week, but will take longer over areas with heavier snow cover across the south and east. Those in the far east like Ohio may not see temperatures rise above normal before more cold air moves in next weekend.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Recent heavy precipitation is helping to raise water levels on the Mississippi and local rivers. There are issues with infrastructure from the weekend's big winter storm, and extremely cold air in the region could lead to issues with ice jams on local rivers.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans, though harvest is increasing, and the rain is becoming less helpful in that regard. South-central areas have been drier lately, which may be causing some stress, though showers are moving back in and will continue into next week. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop though, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time, and spotty showers that moved through since the weekend have missed a lot of primary corn and soybean areas. While a front should come through this weekend with additional showers, models are calling for limited or no precipitation for the primary corn and soybean areas. Soil moisture and crop conditions are low and are expected to continue falling until the weather pattern becomes more active. Models are suggestive of some beneficial, though sporadic rainfall, later next week, but that is highly uncertain.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The weather pattern has been quite active over the vast majority of the continent for some time, continuing to be favorable for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat across the south. The same active weather pattern continues through next week as well. There is very little concern for winter crops across the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Though warmer air has moved into the region this week, and another burst of arctic air is set to descend upon the region this weekend and continue for several days into next week. The harshest cold is forecast over Ukraine, which has better snow cover, but may have a bit too much melting from the warmth this week. That could renew the risk of winterkill on winter wheat. Some damage may have occurred over last week's arctic cold as well. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, as spotty showers are not enough to battle the higher summer heat. Even the remnants of tropical storms cannot seem to hit the primary agricultural areas with any significant moisture. Dry weather continues for most areas into next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum. However, a front may stall over northeastern areas next week that may provide some beneficial rainfall for northern New South Wales into southern Queensland.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some helpful precipitation may fall in some areas for Thursday and Friday, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated snow. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated snow Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday, above normal north and below normal south Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

East: Isolated showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal northwest and below normal southeast Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated snow north Thursday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to well below normal through Saturday, above normal northwest and below normal southeast Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal northwest and below normal southeast Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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