DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough across most of the U.S. with a couple of disturbances in Canada as well. A ridge will be building in the West this week, but the disturbances in Canada will help to reinforce the trough over the Central and East throughout the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Eventually those disturbances in Canada will run out and be replaced by another ridge. That will help to shift the trough off the East Coast early next week. While the harsh weather will leave, clippers will still move through Canada and the northern U.S. next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree about the timing and impact of various clippers this weekend and next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Several clipper systems will move through Canada and the northern U.S. this weekend through next week. Despite this, a general warming trend is forecast for most of the country. Areas with significant snowfall from this past weekend's major winter storm will take a longer time to warm up, however.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...89 AT 7 MILES SOUTH OF BRIGHTON, FL AND DE SOTO CITY, FL

LOW SUN...40 BELOW ZERO AT 31 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOREST CENTER, MN AND 10 MILES NORTWEST OF GUNFLINT LAKE, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...HUNSTVILLE, AL 2.44 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is trough across most of the U.S. with a couple of disturbances in Canada as well. A ridge will be building in the West this week, but the disturbances in Canada will help to reinforce the trough over the Central and East throughout the week. Eventually those disturbances will run out and be replaced by another ridge over Canada. That will help to shift the trough off the East Coast early next week. While the harsh weather will leave, clippers will still move through Canada and the northern U.S. next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree about the timing and impact of various clippers this weekend and next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Several clipper systems will move through Canada and the northern U.S. this weekend through next week. Despite this, a general warming trend is forecast for most of the country. Areas with significant snowfall from this past weekend's major winter storm will take a longer time to warm up, however.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Harsh cold air will be replaced by warmth throughout the week and warmer temperatures are forecast for this weekend and next week. A few clipper systems will move through, but precipitation will be rather limited overall. There may be some sneaky moderate snow on Thursday, however.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A massive winter storm left a trail of ice and snow across most of the region this weekend. Extremely cold air is left in the region as well. Temperatures will slowly rise this week, but areas with heavy snow cover will take a while, which may take until next week. Some wheat areas with heavy snow cover should have some protection from the cold while other areas will see some damage. The cold will stress cattle for a while longer yet though.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Extremely cold air settled over the region this weekend and a major winter storm brought heavy snow to the southern half as well. While the harshest cold should leave on Monday, clippers will continue to bring reinforcements of cold air throughout the week. Warmer temperatures are forecast to move in next week, but will take longer over areas with heavier snow cover.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): A major winter storm pushed through the region over the weekend. Though there are issues with infrastructure, the precipitation will give a boost to local rivers. Extremely cold air in the region could lead to issues with ice jams on local rivers this week, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central Brazil continued to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans over the weekend and showers are expected throughout the week. South-central areas have been drier lately, which may be causing some stress, though showers are forecast to move back in later this week. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop as well, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time, though isolated showers did fall in some areas over the weekend. Spotty showers are forecast for the first half of the week and a front should come through this weekend with additional showers. Despite this, the prospects are still low as soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall. High temperatures early this week may add to the stresses as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The weather pattern has been quite active over the vast majority of the continent for some time, continuing to be favorable for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat across the south. The same active weather pattern continues throughout the week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): It was very cold in western Russia over the weekend, but warmer air started to move into Ukraine over the weekend. The warmer air will continue to spread through the region this week, ending the risk of winterkill on winter wheat. Some damage may have occurred over the last weeks' worth of arctic cold, though. The warmer air will also come with increased showers, though Ukraine will be favored over southwestern Russia, which has a higher need for precipitation. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, as spotty showers are not enough to battle the higher summer heat. Even the remnants of tropical storms cannot seem to hit the primary agricultural areas with any significant moisture. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some helpful precipitation may fall in some areas later this week, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Heavy snow south. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Heavy snow south. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, above normal northwest and below normal southeast Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Heavy mixed precipitation. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated snow northwest Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated snow north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, above normal northwest and below normal southeast Sunday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures above normal Monday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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