Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued cold air in the U.S. and dryness in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MIDWEST STAYING COLD THIS WEEK

Extremely cold air settled over the Midwest this weekend, and a major winter storm brought heavy snow to the southern half as well. While the harshest cold should leave on Monday, clippers will continue to bring reinforcements of cold air throughout the week. Warmer temperatures are forecast to move in next week, but it will take longer over areas with heavier snow cover.

COLD AIR THREATENING WHEAT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A massive winter storm left a trail of ice and snow across most of the Central and Southern Plains this weekend. Extremely cold air is also left in the region. Temperatures will slowly rise this week, but areas with heavy snow cover will take a while, which may take until next week. Some wheat areas with heavy snow cover should have some protection from the cold, while other areas will see some damage. The cold will continue to stress cattle for a while longer yet.

COLD AIR EVENTUALLY LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK

Harsh cold air will be replaced by warmth in the Northern Plains throughout the week, and warmer temperatures are forecast for this weekend and next week. A few clipper systems will move through, but precipitation will be rather limited overall. There may be some sneaky moderate snow on Thursday, however.

WATER LEVELS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER GETTING A BOOST

A major winter storm pushed through the Delta region over the weekend. Though there are issues with infrastructure, the precipitation will give a boost to local rivers. Extremely cold air in the region could lead to issues with ice jams on local rivers this week, however.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Central Brazil continued to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans over the weekend, and showers are expected throughout the week. South-central areas have been drier lately, which may be causing some stress, though showers are forecast to move back in later this week. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop as well, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time, though isolated showers did fall in some areas over the weekend. Spotty showers are forecast for the first half of the week, and a front should come through this weekend with additional showers. Despite this, the prospects are still low as soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall. High temperatures early this week may add to the stresses as well.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

The weather pattern has been quite active over the vast majority of Europe for some time, continuing to be favorable for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat across the south. The same active weather pattern continues throughout the week.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

It was very cold in western Russia over the weekend, but warmer air started to move into Ukraine. The warmer air will continue to spread through the region this week, ending the risk of winterkill on winter wheat. Some damage may have occurred over the last week's worth of arctic cold, though. The warmer air will also come with increased showers, though Ukraine will be favored over southwestern Russia, which has a higher need for precipitation. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed conditions and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

DRY CONTINUES TO BE THE THEME IN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, as spotty showers are not enough to battle the higher summer heat. Even the remnants of tropical storms cannot seem to hit the primary agricultural areas with any significant moisture. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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