DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Alaska with a trough in the Central and East. The trough will spread out through Canada the next few days. That will push a significant cold front through the country later this week. A trough off the coast of California will then move east, producing a storm system across the southern tier of the country that should have significant winter impacts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

With the Alaskan ridge moving up to the North Pole next week, a new ridge will form across the West, though clippers are likely to keep a trough going over the eastern U.S. through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar but have significant differences in the impacts for the weekend storm. I will use a blend but favor the European.

After a major winter system exits off the East Coast on Sunday, cold air will be left behind. The worst of it will leave on Monday, but clippers coming down from Canada will bring additional snow and more bursts of cold air for the rest of January east of the Rockies.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...86 AT 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MALIBU, CA

LOW TUE...30 BELOW ZERO AT 3 MILES WEST OF INDUS, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...SAULT STE. MARIE, MI 0.25 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Alaska with a trough in the Central and East. The trough will spread out through Canada the next few days. That will push a significant cold front through the country later this week. A trough off the coast of California will then move east, producing a storm system across the southern tier of the country that should have significant winter impacts. With the Alaskan ridge moving up to the North Pole next week, a new ridge will form across the West, though clippers are likely to keep a trough going over the eastern U.S. through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have significant differences in the impacts for the weekend storm. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

After a major winter system exits off the East Coast on Sunday, cold air will be left behind. The worst of it will leave on Monday, but clippers coming down from Canada will bring additional snow and more bursts of cold air for the rest of January east of the Rockies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A clipper is moving through with some light snow and strong winds for Wednesday. But a significant arctic cold front will follow it starting on Thursday. Temperatures should moderate some next week, but will still be cold, reinforced by a couple of more clippers moving through.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A strong arctic cold front will sweep south on Friday which will bring in some extremely cold air. In addition, a system will form along the front and produce widespread wintry conditions across the region for Friday night and Saturday. Areas of heavy snow and ice are in the forecast. Some of that snow may protect areas of winter wheat from the harsh temperatures, but significant damage is looking likely.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A pair of clippers are bringing some light snow and cold air to the region for Wednesday and Thursday. A significant arctic cold front will sweep through the region on Thursday night, leading to some significantly cold air for Friday and Saturday. A system will move across the southern tier of the country but should clip the southern half of the region with some snow, which may be heavy in spots. Though the harshest temperatures will moderate next week, a few clippers should bring reinforcing shots of cold air and some more light snow. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill on winter wheat.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River are falling this week and continue to be low, though not dangerously so. Some showers will move across the region Wednesday and Thursday and a major winter storm will move through this weekend. That should help to boost water levels on the river and help to ease some of the growing drought in the region. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air and local rivers may have to worry about ice jams because of it next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through southern areas over the weekend and will be enhancing showers over central Brazil this week. That is favorable for filling soybeans. South-central areas will stay drier, possibly through next week. That may include some significant areas of filling soybeans that could cut the top off of yields in some areas. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop as well, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time. Soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall which will have some effect on both corn and soybean production. A few spotty showers may develop across the south this weekend, but coverage is forecast to be low. Dryness likely continues next week as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. Storms will continue to run into the west this week, but will spread through the Mediterranean later this week and weekend.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Extremely cold air sat across much of the region over the weekend and continues for much of this week. Another push of arctic air is forecast over western Russia this weekend, but temperatures should rise next week. Snow cover is not sufficient to protect all of the wheat from the recent and forecast cold temperatures. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though that is somewhat mixed across the east, where spotty showers have been able to hold back the dryness a bit. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some helpful precipitation fell over the weekend, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Scattered snow south Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday, well below normal Friday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday, well below normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures variable.

Forecast: Isolated showers southeast Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, especially north. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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