Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong arctic cold front delivering near-record cold, a major winter storm system for the South, cold air in the Black Sea region, and dryness in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

CLIPPERS DELIVERING COLD TO THE MIDWEST INTO NEXT WEEK

Cold air is being reinforced by clippers over the next couple of days in the Midwest, which will also bring some areas of light snow. A significant arctic cold front will sweep through the region on Thursday night, leading to some potential record cold for Friday and Saturday. Though the harshest temperatures will moderate next week, a few clippers should bring reinforcing shots of cold air and some more light snow. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill on winter wheat.

EXTREME COLD AND MAJOR WINTER STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some cold air settled into the Central and Southern Plains briefly on Saturday and Monday, but significant damage to winter wheat may have been tough to do. However, a significant arctic cold front will sweep south on Friday which may set some records over the weekend. In addition, a system will form along the front and produce widespread wintry conditions across the region for Friday night and Saturday. Areas of heavy snow and ice are in the forecast. Some of that snow may protect areas of winter wheat from the harsh temperatures, but significant damage is looking likely.

LARGELY COLD WITH CLIPPERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A pair of clippers will move through the Northern Plains with some snow and somewhat colder air the next couple of days. But a significant arctic cold front will follow it starting on Thursday. The cold may break some records across the Dakotas on Friday. Temperatures should moderate some next week, but will still be cold, reinforced by a couple of more clippers moving through.

LOW WATER LEVELS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GET A BOOST FROM A MAJOR SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK

Water levels on the Mississippi River are falling this week and continue to be low, though not dangerously so. Some showers will move across the region this week and a major winter storm will move through this weekend. That should help to boost water levels on the river and help to ease some of the growing drought in the region. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air and local rivers may have to worry about ice jams because of it next week.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL, GETTING HEAVIER NEXT WEEK

A front moved through southern areas over the weekend and will be enhancing showers over central Brazil this week. That is favorable for filling soybeans. South-central areas will stay drier, however, and will not be as favorable.

STILL DRY FOR MOST OF ARGENTINA

While a few showers fell across southern Argentina this weekend, it has been very dry there for quite some time. Soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall over the fertile southern half of Argentina's growing areas, which will have some effect on both corn and soybean production. A few spotty showers may develop across the south this weekend, but coverage and amounts are forecast to be low.

OVERALL GOOD CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. Storms will continue to run into the west this week, but will spread through the Mediterranean later this week and weekend.

COLD AIR CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Extremely cold air sat across much of the Black Sea region over the weekend and continues for much of this week. Another push of arctic air is forecast over western Russia this weekend into next week. Snow cover is not sufficient to protect all the wheat from the recent and forecast cold temperatures. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

MORE DRY WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though that is somewhat mixed across the east, where spotty showers have been able to hold back the dryness a bit. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing-to-reproductive cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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