DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Alaska with a trough in the East. The ridge will continue to migrate west through the Bering Sea this week, while the trough spreads out through Canada. That will push a significant cold front through the country later this week. A trough off the coast of California will then move east, producing a storm system across the southern tier of the country that should have significant winter impacts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

With the Bering Sea ridge moving up to the North Pole next week, a new ridge will form across the West, though clippers are likely to keep a trough going over the eastern U.S.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the slightly colder European.

A major winter system is forecast to move across the southern tier of the country this weekend. Widespread wintry impacts are forecast from the Southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Arctic cold air will be situated over the eastern half of the country this weekend, which will be reinforced by a couple of clippers next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...84 AT WOODLAND HILLS, CA

LOW MON...29 BELOW ZERO AT TOWER, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...PROVIDENCE, RI 0.35 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Alaska with a trough in the East. The ridge will continue to migrate west through the Bering Sea this week, while the trough spreads out through Canada. That will push a significant cold front through the country later this week. A trough off the coast of California will then move east, producing a storm system across the southern tier of the country that should have significant winter impacts. With the Bering Sea ridge moving up to the North Pole next week, a new ridge will form across the West, though clippers are likely to keep a trough going over the eastern U.S.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the slightly colder European.

A major winter system is forecast to move across the southern tier of the country this weekend. Widespread wintry impacts are forecast from the Southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Arctic cold air will be situated over the eastern half of the country this weekend, which will be reinforced by a couple of clippers next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A pair of clippers will move through with some snow and somewhat colder air the next couple of days. But a significant arctic cold front will follow it starting on Thursday. The cold may break some records across the Dakotas on Friday. Temperatures should moderate some next week, but will still be cold, reinforced by a couple of more clippers moving through.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Some cold air settled in briefly on Saturday and Monday, but significant damage to winter wheat may have been tough to do. However, a significant arctic cold front will sweep south on Friday which may set some records over the weekend. In addition, a system will form along the front and produce widespread wintry conditions across the region for Friday night and Saturday. Areas of heavy snow and ice are in the forecast. Some of that snow may protect areas of winter wheat from the harsh temperatures, but significant damage is looking likely

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air is being reinforced by clippers over the next couple of days, which will also bring some areas of light snow. A significant arctic cold front will sweep through the region on Thursday night, leading to some potential record cold for Friday and Saturday. Though the harshest temperatures will moderate next week, a few clippers should bring reinforcing shots of cold air and some more light snow. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill on winter wheat.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River are falling this week and continue to be low, though not dangerously so. Some showers will move across the region this week and a major winter storm will move through this weekend. That should help to boost water levels on the river and help to ease some of the growing drought in the region. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air and local rivers may have to worry about ice jams because of it next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through southern areas over the weekend and will be enhancing showers over central Brazil this week. That is favorable for filling soybeans. South-central areas will stay drier, however, and will not be as favorable.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front exited to the north over the weekend. And while a few showers fell across the south as well, it has been very dry there for quite some time. Soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall over the fertile southern half of Argentina's growing areas, which will have some effect on both corn and soybean production. A few spotty showers may develop across the south this weekend, but coverage and amounts are forecast to be low.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. Storms will continue to run into the west this week, but will spread through the Mediterranean later this week and weekend.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Extremely cold air sat across much of the region over the weekend and continues for much of this week. Another push of arctic air is forecast over western Russia this weekend into next week. Snow cover is not sufficient to protect all of the wheat from the recent and forecast cold temperatures. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though that is somewhat mixed across the east, where spotty showers have been able to hold back the dryness a bit. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some helpful precipitation fell over the weekend, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Scattered snow south Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday, well below normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday, well below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Sunday-Monday, below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures variable.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers southeast Wednesday-Thursday.

Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Thursday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, above normal west and below normal east Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday, especially north. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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