DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West poking its way north up into Alaska and a trough in the East. The ridge continues to push westward for the rest of the week as clipper systems move down through Canada into the Central and Eastern U.S., reinforcing the trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge is forecast to continue northwest through Alaska and the Bering Sea next week, which should shift the trough through most of Canada while a ridge pops up in the Southeast. This should become a much more volatile pattern for the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Another clipper system will be possible in the middle of next week with some lighter snow across the north. Cold air will pool up in Canada while warmth spreads across the South next week. Eventually the cold is going to win out, probably with a big system bringing it down. That process may start late next week or weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...88 AT 4 MILES EAST OF NORTH SHORE, CA

LOW WED...8 BELOW ZERO AT FLAG ISLAND, MN, AND WARROAD, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRBANKS, AK 0.89 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West poking its way north up into Alaska and a trough in the East. The ridge continues to push westward for the rest of the week as clipper systems move down through Canada into the Central and Eastern U.S., reinforcing the trough. The ridge is forecast to continue northwest through Alaska and the Bering Sea next week, which should shift the trough through most of Canada while a ridge pops up in the Southeast. This should become a much more volatile pattern for the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Another clipper system will be possible in the middle of next week with some lighter snow across the north. Cold air will pool up in Canada while warmth spreads across the South next week. Eventually the cold is going to win out, probably with a big system bringing it down. That process may start late next week or weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A couple more days of warmth are on tap before the pattern collapses and turns to a colder one this weekend and especially next week with more clippers bringing down arctic air.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures this week have melted the snow that fell in the southwest over the weekend.

Wheat has limited cold hardiness after recent weeks of warmth. But eventually some colder air is likely to move down into the region and threaten more of the wheat. Though some cooler temperatures will occur this weekend, the pattern is more threatening by the end of next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Clippers continue to move through with limited showers going into next week. Though some milder temperatures may move in ahead of each clipper, the trend is for below-normal temperatures and we may have to watch for a bigger system and stronger burst of cold air to move through at the end of next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River are getting a boost from a system that brought showers late last week, but are still low and not a long-term solution to the low water levels. Clipper systems moving through this week are not providing a meaningful boost to levels either. A better storm track through the region will be necessary. That may start late next week or weekend, but is forecast to be more favorable in February and March.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rainfall coverage is increasing across central Brazil this week, which is beneficial for filling soybeans. Recent heat and limited showers may have been somewhat stressful in some areas, but the rain is likely to relieve much of that stress. A front will move up from Argentina this weekend to give some showers to southern areas going into next week, and enhance showers in central Brazil around the middle of next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Southern and central areas have been much drier and are seeing soil moisture and crop conditions falling. A front will sweep through the country on Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts may be impressive for locations in the north, but the south continues to look dry.

Crop conditions are forecast to continue falling, which has been planned for by many producers that understand the risk for dryness in January. There will be some effect to corn and soybeans, however.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. The storm track remains active but will favor the west for the next week. Some areas in the south and southeast may dry out a bit, but are still in good shape. Longer-range forecasts have precipitation increasing across more of the continent later next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Cold air in Ukraine is spreading to western Russia.

Ukraine had better snow coverage, but that is more limited farther east, which may need to worry about winterkill damage as the cold air sticks around through next week and may be intense. Some limited snow continues through Friday, but little protection is forecast. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas have decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been relatively limited over the last couple of months. Showers may move through these areas early next week. It is a long time before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy, but they will need more precipitation.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday, north Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.