DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The ridge will continually be beaten westward for the rest of the week as clipper systems move down through Canada into the Central and Eastern U.S., reinforcing the trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge is forecast to continue northwest through Alaska and the Bering Sea next week, which should shift the trough through most of Canada while a ridge pops up in the Southeast. This should become a much more volatile pattern for the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will exit the Northeast on Monday, but will bring down some more cold air for the eastern half of the country. Another clipper system will be possible in the middle of next week with some lighter snow. A warm-west and cold-east pattern starts the week, but cold air will pool up in Canada while warmth spreads across the South. Eventually the cold is going to win out, probably with a big system bringing it down. That process may start late next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...84 AT 4 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MALIBU, CA

LOW TUE...2 BELOW ZERO AT MAMMOTH LAKES, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...JUNEAU, AK 0.69 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The ridge will continually be beaten westward for the rest of the week as clipper systems move down through Canada into the Central and Eastern U.S., reinforcing the trough.

The ridge is forecast to continue northwest through Alaska and the Bering Sea next week, which should shift the trough through most of Canada while a ridge pops up in the Southeast. This should become a much more volatile pattern for the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will exit the Northeast on Monday, but will bring down some more cold air for the eastern half of the country. Another clipper system will be possible in the middle of next week with some lighter snow. A warm-west and cold-east pattern starts the week, but cold air will pool up in Canada while warmth spreads across the South. Eventually the cold is going to win out, probably with a big system bringing it down. That process may start late next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A couple more days of warmth are on tap before the pattern collapses and turns to a colder one this weekend and especially next week with more clippers bringing down arctic air.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures this week have melted the snow that fell in the southwest over the weekend.

Wheat has limited cold hardiness after recent weeks of warmth. But eventually some colder air is likely to move down into the region and threaten more of the wheat. Though some cooler temperatures will occur this weekend, the pattern may be a bit more threatening by the end of next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Several clippers are moving through with variable temperatures and limited showers going into next week. Though some milder temperatures may move in ahead of each clipper, the trend is for below-normal temperatures through next week and we may have to watch for a bigger system and stronger burst of cold air to move through at the end of next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels along the Mississippi River are getting a boost from a system that brought showers late last week, but are still low and not a long-term solution to the low water levels. Clipper systems moving through this week will not provide a meaningful boost to levels either. A better storm track through the region will be necessary. That may start late next week or weekend, but is forecast to be more favorable in February and March.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rainfall coverage is increasing across central Brazil this week, which is beneficial for filling soybeans. Recent heat and limited showers may have been somewhat stressful in some areas, but the coming rain is likely to relieve much of that stress. A front will move up from Argentina this weekend to give some showers to southern areas going into next week, and enhance showers in central Brazil around the middle of next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Southern and central areas have been much drier and are seeing soil moisture and crop conditions falling. A front brought some isolated showers to southern areas on Tuesday, but was neither widespread nor heavy. Another will sweep through the country on Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts may be impressive for a couple of lucky locations in the north, but the south continues to look dry. Crop conditions are forecast to continue falling, which has been planned for by many producers that understand the risk for dryness in January. There will be some effect, however.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. The storm track remains active but will favor the west and north for the next week. Some areas in the south and southeast may dry out a bit, but are still in good shape. Longer-range forecasts have precipitation increasing across more of the continent later next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Cold air in Ukraine is spreading to western Russia.

Ukraine had better snow coverage, but that is more limited farther east, which may need to worry about winterkill damage as the cold air sticks around through next week and may be intense. Some limited snow continues through Friday, but little protection is forecast. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas have decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been relatively limited over the last couple of months. Showers may move through these areas early next week. It is a long time before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy, but they will need more precipitation.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.