DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West that extends up into Alaska. The trough will consolidate and move eastward through the U.S. this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge will form right behind the departing troughs, becoming stationary across the West up to Alaska, a big change to the weather pattern for next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A couple of clipper systems should move through next week with limited showers and eventually some colder air to the north. One is forecast for late next week that should bring with it a dose of more widespread colder air for those east of the Rockies going into the following week as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...89 AT 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX

LOW WED...2 BELOW ZERO AT MAMMOTH LAKES, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...PORTLAND, OR 0.95 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West that extends up into Alaska. The trough will consolidate and move eastward through the U.S. this weekend. A ridge will form right behind it, becoming stationary across the West up to Alaska, a big change to the weather pattern for next week. Disturbances will move in a clipper-like fashion east of the ridge throughout next week, resulting in a trough across the East by the middle of the week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A couple of clipper systems should move through next week with limited showers and eventually some colder air to the north. One is forecast for late next week that should bring with it a dose of more widespread colder air for those east of the Rockies going into the following week as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Temperatures continue to be largely above normal into early next week with little interruption. Some spotty showers may move through on occasion, but the main storm track will bypass the region. Clipper systems will be possible next week, though the track may be to the east. Significant uncertainty exists with regard to temperatures because of this, but there is a threat of cold air returning by late next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures continue to be above normal, which has reduced winter hardiness for winter wheat. A system is moving through early on Thursday with mostly rain followed by another on Friday, which will have access to some colder air and produce a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures should rise again next week. The shot of colder air is not a harsh one, but areas not covered in snow could see some issues with winterkill in the short-term. There is a much larger long-term risk for when significant cold air inevitably returns, maybe at the end of next week or just after.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures continue above normal for the next few days. A pair of systems will move through over the next few days. The first will be largely rain for Thursday into Friday with some limited northern snow, but the second will have access to some colder air that should bring through a band of snow and a brief burst of lake-effect snow. Temperatures may drop for a day or so, but are forecast to rise again next week. Clipper systems moving through next week will eventually bring back some colder air, but maybe not until the end of the week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels along the Mississippi River are low and falling for the next few days. A pair of systems will bring widespread rain Thursday and especially Friday, and should provide a meaningful boost. But this is not a long-term solution to the low water levels and transportation concerns. The setup for that may have to wait until February, but is expected to arrive.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers in central Brazil were heavy over the last week, but are thinning out to end the week. The recent rain is helpful for soybeans as more and more of the crop is setting pods. That process accelerates throughout January, the most important month for rainfall in the country. But with soil moisture still running very low, the coverage of showers will be more important than normal over the next six weeks or so. Shower coverage may increase with time next week. Southern areas are still in much better shape. A front moving in on Thursday will produce some more beneficial rounds of rainfall into the weekend and may linger over Parana for next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Rainfall has been running below normal for a while across southern and central areas while northern areas have had much better coverage and amounts in recent weeks. The same is true with a front moving through over the next two days. Northern areas are getting better rainfall coverage and amounts, where conditions are largely favorable. Heat stress has been minimal so far this season however, allowing the water that is still in the soil more time to be beneficial for developing corn and soybeans across the south. But this is an area to watch for falling crop conditions.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. A very active weather pattern continues through next week, which will maintain this trend. It continues to be colder over northern areas though, which may leave some exposed areas at a minor risk of winterkill in Poland and the surrounding areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): The weather pattern is becoming a bit more active, which is favorable for building some snowpack and soil moisture for dormant winter wheat. Warmer temperatures over the next few days could threaten to melt a good portion of that recent snow and models suggest that colder air will return next week, which could be threatening in some areas that remain barren of snow.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas have decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather continues for most areas through next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been relatively limited to end 2025. Another couple of drier weeks are forecast that would continue that trend. It is a long time before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy, but they will need more precipitation.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above to well above normal Monday.

East: Scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers overnight. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, north Monday.

Temperatures near normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday, near normal Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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