DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West that extends up into Alaska. Some disturbances will move from the trough eastward through the ridge this week, but the main energy will move eastward through the continent late this week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another ridge will form right behind it, becoming stationary across the West up to Alaska, a big change to the weather pattern for next week. Disturbances will move in a clipper-like fashion east of the ridge in response.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will be exiting off the East Coast this weekend, likely bringing through some briefly colder air, at least temporarily. A couple of systems should move through next week, following a clipper-like pattern with limited showers for northern areas. Models have much warmer air for next week, though they are likely to trend downward given the setup.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...88 AT MCALLEN, TX, 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX, 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX, AND 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINN, TX

LOW MON...26 BELOW ZERO AT 4 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ESTCOURT STATION, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...SAN DIEGO, CA 0.68 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West that extends up into Alaska. Some disturbances will move from the trough eastward through the ridge this week, but the main energy will move eastward through the continent late this week and weekend. Another ridge will form right behind it, becoming stationary across the West up to Alaska, a big change to the weather pattern for next week. Disturbances will move in a clipper-like fashion east of the ridge in response.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will be exiting off the East Coast this weekend, likely bringing through some briefly colder air, at least temporarily. A couple of systems should move through next week, following a clipper-like pattern with limited showers for northern areas. Models have much warmer air for next week, though they are likely to trend downward given the setup.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Temperatures continue to be largely above normal into early next week with little interruption. Some spotty showers may move through on occasion, but the main storm track will bypass the region. Clipper systems will be possible next week, though the track may push east of the region. Significant uncertainty exists with regard to temperatures because of this.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures continue to be above normal for the next few days. A system will move through early on Thursday with scattered rain followed by another on Friday, which will have access to some colder air and produce a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures should rise again next week. Warmer air recently has reduced winter hardiness for winter wheat, which is now at risk for a shot of colder air that inevitably will return at some point this month. Snow falling later this week will help to protect wheat from damage in the short-term, but there is a much larger long-term risk.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures continue above normal for the next few days. However, it is still cold enough for limited showers across the north to become freezing rain or snow for Tuesday. A pair of systems will move through later this week and weekend. The first will be largely rain for Thursday into Friday, but the second will have access to some colder air that should bring through a band of snow for the Upper Midwest. Temperatures may drop for a day or so, but are forecast to rise again next week. Models may trend downward though as the pattern switches to allow a few clippers to move through next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels along the Mississippi River are low and falling for the next few days. A pair of systems will bring widespread rain later this week and should provide a meaningful boost, but not a long-term solution to the low water levels and transportation concerns.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers in central Brazil have been heavy over the last few days, which is helping soybeans as more and more of the crop is setting pods. That process accelerates in January, the most important month for rainfall in the country. Showers will be widespread early this week, but should thin out with time. With soil moisture still running very low, the coverage of showers will be more important than normal over the next six weeks or so. Southern areas are still in much better shape. A front moving in later this week will produce some more beneficial rounds of rainfall into the weekend.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Rainfall has been running below normal for a while across southern and central areas while northern areas have had much better coverage and amounts in recent weeks. The same is true with a pair of fronts moving through this week. Northern areas stand better chances for rainfall in both coverage and amounts, where conditions are largely favorable. Heat stress has been minimal so far this season however, allowing the water that is still in the soil more time to be beneficial for developing corn and soybeans across the south. But this is an area to watch for falling crop conditions.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. A very active weather pattern is in place this week, which will continue this trend. It will be colder over northern areas though, which may leave some exposed areas at a minor risk of winterkill.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): The weather pattern is starting to become a bit more active, which is favorable for building some snowpack and soil moisture for dormant winter wheat. Areas at risk of winterkill are low because of the northern snowpack that is now building. Warmer temperatures later this week could threaten to melt a good portion of that recent snow, however. Models suggest that colder air will return next week, which could be threatening in some areas.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas, though some eastern areas are running with decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather for most areas this week will not be favorable for developing cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been relatively limited to end 2025. Another couple of drier weeks are forecast that would continue that trend. It is a long time before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy, but they will need more precipitation.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north exiting early Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers east Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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