DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the U.S. with a trough in the West. The trough will move eastward this weekend, pushing through the northern U.S. and deepening over eastern Canada next week. The ridge will fill right back in behind it across the West and spread through the U.S. next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will develop then in western Canada later next week. The western trough is likely to send some big energy eastward in early January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will move through northern areas in the middle of next week with some snow and a shot of very cold air while the south remains warmer. A system will be possible next weekend with scattered showers.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...87 AT BROWNSVILLE, TX, MCALLEN, TX, CHILDRESS, TX, VERNON, TX, AND ALTUS, OK

LOW THU...3 BELOW ZERO AT HOULTON, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...SAN JUAN, PR 1.70INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the U.S. with a trough in the West. The trough will move eastward this weekend, pushing through the northern U.S. and deepening over eastern Canada next week. The ridge will fill right back in behind it across the West and spread through the U.S. next week. Another trough will develop then in western Canada later next week. The western trough is likely to send some big energy eastward in early January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will move through northern areas in the middle of next week with some snow and a shot of very cold air while the south remains warmer. A system will be possible next weekend with scattered showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Cold air lurking in Canada has been leaking into the north and should continue over the weekend and again next week. That will come with a couple of systems that should bring through some limited showers.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures have been extremely warm this week. A cold front will move through this weekend with a significant temperature drop and limited showers. Temperatures will rise early next week, though. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air has been awakening wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warmer air flooded the region this week. A system moving through on Friday is bringing some showers, mostly as rain and freezing rain to northern areas. A stronger system will move through Sunday and Monday with strong winds, rain changing to snow, a burst of some colder air, and lake-effect snow. A clipper moving through in the middle of next week will bring through another band of snow but much colder temperatures for a few days.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Snowmelt across the Midwest brought a limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River this week, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. Though some showers will move through this weekend, an overall dry forecast into January is concerning for river transportation.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front stalled across the south has been producing widespread and largely beneficial rainfall throughout the week. Showers have become very isolated over west-central Brazil while east-central areas have been very hot and dry, concerning for soybeans that continue to get into the pod-fill stage. That will accelerate in January. Rain is forecast to move back into these areas next week, though.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front stalled across the far north has been bringing largely beneficial rain this week, though some areas may have seen some flooding. Another front will move through this weekend with scattered showers. Despite a drier stretch of weather across the south, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, but moisture levels are falling. Rain from the front this weekend is forecast to be sparse and dry weather next week could mean stresses for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Showers across the Mediterranean this week have been favorable for vegetative winter wheat across the south. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat. Showers are forecast to be much lighter next week, focusing on northeastern areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. Snow is moving through on Friday and several other bursts of largely light snow are forecast to fall this weekend and next week. Ukraine is favored over southwest Russia and that may be important as temperatures drop. Areas without adequate snow cover could see some winterkill.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture is still mixed around the wheat belt. It has been drier most of this week and only spotty showers are forecast to end the year. Wheat and canola harvest is nearing the end with overall favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is nearly completed and is finding some unfortunate dryness in a lot of areas, causing stress.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. Very little is forecast going into early January, which may start to become a concern if the trend doesn't reverse over the winter.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday, north Monday.

Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures well above normal through Saturday, falling Sunday, below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday.

Lake-effect snow Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, falling Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures well above normal through Saturday, falling Sunday, below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, mostly west. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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