Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stretch of record warmth for the U.S., and an uneven distribution of rain in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MIXED CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEST, EXTREME SOUTHERN WARMTH

Warmer air is flooding the Midwest this week, melting what is left of the snowpack in many areas. A system will move through on Thursday and Friday, which will bring some showers, mostly as rain and freezing rain. Another system will move through this weekend with more potential showers, a burst of some colder air, and lake-effect snow. Another front and burst of cold may come in to start the new year.

RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures will be record-warm over the next few days in the Central and Southern Plains. A cold front will move through this weekend with a temperature drop, but will be brief with warm air moving in again next week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air is awakening wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.

NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE STORM TRACK, BUT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

Cold air lurking in Canada has been leaking into the far Northern Plains and may continue over the next few days, but it should be overall warm. A stronger cold front moving through on Saturday will send temperatures down for a day or two before they pop back up next week. Another colder shot could be possible later next week, too.

MIDWEST SNOWMELT CAUSING SMALL BUMP FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Warmth continues to melt snow across the Midwest, which will give a very limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. An overall dry forecast through the end of the year and into January is also concerning for river transportation.

DRY IN EASTERN BRAZIL, RAIN FORECAST TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

A front stalled across southern Brazil will be there for the rest of the week, producing widespread and largely beneficial rainfall, though some flooding may occur. Scattered showers continue over much of west-central Brazil this week, boosting soil moisture for soybeans that continue to move into the pod-fill stage. Some areas across the east in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais are getting much less precipitation this week, which could be concerning as temperatures are very hot when it is not raining. Rain is forecast to move back into these areas next week, though.

STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN ARGENTINA

A front remains stalled across far northern Argentina for the rest of the week. Another front will move through this weekend with scattered showers. Despite a drier stretch of weather across the south, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN

Showers continue across the Mediterranean for the next few days, being favorable for vegetative winter wheat across the south. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition in the Black Sea region. Showers will move through on Friday with another burst over the weekend, though Ukraine is favored over southwest Russia. The precipitation will come mostly as snow and the region will need a thick blanket to protect the wheat. Areas that don't could see some winterkill.

ANOTHER DRY STRETCH FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture is still mixed around Australia's wheat belt. Scattered showers moved through eastern areas this weekend and continue in the northeast for the next few days. But the rest of the country is forecast to dry out to end the calendar year. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition for early growth.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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