DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the U.S. and is quite strong this week. There is a larger trough in northern Canada and another in western Canada. Not much will change over the next couple of days but the western Canada trough will move eastward this weekend, pushing through the northern U.S. and deepen over eastern Canada next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will fill right back in behind it across the West and spread through the U.S. next week. Another trough will develop then in western Canada later next week. The western trough and eastern ridge could be a prominent pattern going into early January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the European is deeper with the trough next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A storm system will move through the country this weekend, but with uncertain precipitation. It should bring through a quick burst of some cooler air after a record-setting Christmas week. But warmth will come in right behind it for next week, especially in the Plains. Eastern areas may stay on the cooler side for a few days, especially the Northeast.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...90 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW MON...13 BELOW ZERO AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...SAN FRANCISCO, CA 0.91 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the U.S. and is quite strong this week. There is a larger trough in northern Canada and another in western Canada. Not much will change over the next couple of days but the western Canada trough will move eastward this weekend, pushing through the northern U.S. and deepen over eastern Canada next week. The ridge will fill right back in behind it across the West and spread through the U.S. next week. Another trough will develop then in western Canada later next week. The western trough and eastern ridge could be a prominent pattern going into early January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the European is deeper with the trough next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A storm system will move through the country this weekend, but with uncertain precipitation. It should bring through a quick burst of some cooler air after a record-setting Christmas week. But warmth will come in right behind it for next week, especially in the Plains. Eastern areas may stay on the cooler side for a few days, especially the Northeast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Cold air lurking in Canada may leak into the area over the next few days, but it should be overall warm. A few systems will move through over the next week, but with very limited precipitation in the forecast. A stronger cold front moving through on Saturday will send temperatures down for a day or two before they pop back up next week. Another colder shot could be possible later next week, too.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures will be record warm over the next few days. A cold front will move through this weekend with a temperature drop, but will still be near to above normal behind it, and fill back in next week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air should awaken the wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warmer air is flooding the region this week, melting what is left of the snowpack in most areas. A system will move through on Thursday and Friday, which will bring some showers, mostly as rain and freezing rain. Another system will move through this weekend with more potential showers and a brief burst of some colder air. That should not last long as temperatures rise again early next week. Another front and burst of cold may come in to start the new year, though.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Warmth continues to melt snow across the Midwest, which will give a very limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. An overall dry forecast through the end of the year and into January is also concerning for river transportation.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has stalled across the south and will be there for most of the week, producing widespread and largely beneficial rainfall, though some flooding may occur. Scattered showers continue over much of west-central Brazil this week, boosting soil moisture for soybeans that continue to move into the pod-fill stage. Some areas in the east in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais will get much less precipitation this week, which could be concerning as temperatures should be very hot when it is not raining. Rain is forecast to move back into these areas next week, though.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through this weekend with widespread rainfall, but some limited amounts across the south. That front should stall across the far north for most of the week. Another front will move through this weekend with scattered showers. Despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Showers continue across the Mediterranean through most of the week, being favorable for vegetative winter wheat across the south. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. It continues dry for most of the week, with showers coming back in after Christmas Day. Overall, conditions are unfavorable for winter wheat. With how warm it has been, winter hardiness may not be sufficient to survive the burst of cold as much of the region is snow-free. Some snow will move in with colder air later this week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture is still mixed around the wheat belt. Scattered showers moved through eastern areas this weekend and continue in the northeast for the next few days. But the rest of the country is forecast to dry out to end the calendar year. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition for early growth.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. Very little is forecast through the end of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Lake-effect snow Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Monday, above normal west and below normal east Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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