DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is in the Western U.S. with a brief trough in the Great Lakes and a larger trough over northern Canada. The Canadian trough is guiding another over the ridge through Canada this weekend while the ridge expands eastward through the U.S. at the same time, pushing out the Great Lakes trough rather quickly.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

This ridge will strengthen significantly next week. The main portion of the trough will then shift into western Canada and Alaska by the end of next week.

Some disturbances will move over the ridge through the end of the year, but will not be able to take it out.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Extremely warm air will develop next week across the U.S. with the cold air shifting to western Canada. Northern areas will continue to be the target for an active weather pattern along the border with a couple of storm systems to move through, but with little cold air to tap into and with limited showers.

Some record high temperatures will fall next week, particularly across the middle of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...91 AT 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, CA

LOW THU...8 BELOW ZERO AT ROLLA, ND AND CROSBY, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...SALEM, OR 1.59 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is in the Western U.S. with a brief trough in the Great Lakes and a larger trough over northern Canada. The Canadian trough is guiding another over the ridge through Canada this weekend while the ridge expands eastward through the U.S. at the same time, pushing out the Great Lakes trough rather quickly.

This ridge will strengthen significantly next week. The main portion of the trough will then shift into western Canada and Alaska by the end of next week.

Some disturbances will move over the ridge through the end of the year, but will not be able to take it out.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Extremely warm air will develop next week across the U.S. with the cold air shifting to western Canada. Northern areas will continue to be the target for an active weather pattern along the border with a couple of storm systems to move through, but with little cold air to tap into and with limited showers.

Some record high temperatures will fall next week, particularly across the middle of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Light snow but strong winds produced blizzard conditions in parts of the region on Thursday. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week. That may continue to bring through a few showers and changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain largely in Canada after Saturday until probably the new year.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warmer air will continue through the end of the year with little exception, and will likely be record high next week. It will also be dry and that is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season. Warmer air should awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought through a wave of showers on Thursday and is initiating some brief lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes for Friday. Another system will move through this weekend but with fewer showers. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air is causing significant melting of snow, letting that get into the soil column.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): A few showers moved through on Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by through the end of the year as a general below-normal precipitation pattern continues. Water levels continue to be quite low, though warmer air up north has melted some of the snowpack in the Midwest and will accelerate next week. That will give a little boost to the rivers, but will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move into the south on Sunday and may be stuck there for most of next week. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue, especially in Mato Grosso and Goias and farther north, but we may see fewer showers across the east in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. Overall conditions continue to be either favorable or improving.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moves through this weekend with widespread rainfall. That front should stall across the far north for next week as well. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A secondary storm track produced scattered showers across the Mediterranean earlier this week. More showers are forecast there again this weekend and next week. Some needed rainfall is forecast for Italy and parts of Spain. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. It continues to be warm and dry into next week, unfavorable for winter wheat. The next chance for significant precipitation comes around Christmas and will be followed by some colder air. With how warm it has been, winter hardiness may not be sufficient to survive the burst of cold as much of the region is snow-free.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture is still mixed around the country's wheat belt. Scattered showers will move through on Friday through the weekend and continue in the northeast for early next week. But the rest of the country is forecast to dry out a bit to end the calendar year. Wheat and canola are still being harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry and colder weather over the last few weeks has been pushing winter wheat and canola into dormancy in largely good condition. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. Very little is forecast through the end of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers north through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers east. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, well above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures well above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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