DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is over the U.S. with a larger trough over northern Canada. The trough is guiding a trough through the ridge over the next couple of days, but that ridge will fill back in behind it and strengthen for next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The main portion of the trough will develop in western Canada and Alaska by the end of next week. Some disturbances will move over the ridge next week, but will not be able to take it out, leaving the very warm ridge in place.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The pattern continues to be an overall warm one in the U.S., but cold air lingers up in Canada. Northern areas will continue to be the target for an active weather pattern along the border next week with a couple of storm systems to move through. Despite that, the forecast calls for largely above-normal temperatures and some record high potential for Christmas, particularly for the southern half of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...85 AT 6 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GLAMIS, CA AND 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACUMBA, CA

LOW WED...0 AT GUNNISON, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...PORTLAND, OR 2.06 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is over the U.S. with a larger trough over northern Canada. The trough is guiding a trough through the ridge over the next couple of days, but that ridge will fill back in behind it and strengthen for next week. The main portion of the trough will then develop in western Canada and Alaska by the end of next week. Some disturbances will move over the ridge next week, but will not be able to take it out.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The pattern continues to be an overall warm one in the U.S., but cold air lingers up in Canada. Northern areas will continue to be the target for an active weather pattern along the border next week with a couple of storm systems to move through. Despite that, the forecast calls for largely above-normal temperatures and some record high potential for Christmas, particularly for the southern half of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A system is exiting along the border on Thursday, but strong winds and some light snow could create some blizzard conditions in North Dakota. A quick burst of colder air is moving through as well. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week.

That may continue to bring through a few showers and changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain largely in Canada until after Christmas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warmer air is in place and will continue through Christmas with little exception, and could be record high next week. A front will sweep through with some briefly milder air and a few showers early Thursday, but drier and warmer conditions are largely expected for a little while longer. That is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season. Warmer air may awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system will bring through some showers and another brief burst of colder temperatures on Thursday, initiating some brief lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. Another system may do something a bit similar but with fewer showers this weekend. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air should cause significant melting of snow and get that moisture into the soil column.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): A few showers will move through on Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by as a general below-normal precipitation pattern continues. Water levels continue to be quite low, though some warmer air up north will melt some of the snowpack in the Midwest and give a little boost to the rivers as well. It just will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought enhanced showers across the south earlier this week, helping to maintain soil moisture. Another front is forecast to move into the south on Sunday and may be stuck there for most of next week. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue, especially in Mato Grosso and Goias and farther north. Overall conditions continue to be either favorable or improving.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought scattered showers through the country earlier this week, which brought some needed rain to some areas that were starting to dry out a bit. Another front moves through this weekend with widespread rainfall. That front may stall across the far north for next week as well. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A secondary storm track has meant scattered showers across the Mediterranean earlier this week. More showers are forecast there again this weekend and next week. Some needed rainfall is forecast for Italy and parts of Spain. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. It continues to be warm and dry into next week, unfavorable for winter wheat. The next chance for significant precipitation comes around Christmas and followed by some colder air. With how warm it has been, winter hardiness may not be sufficient to survive the burst of cold as much of the region is snow-free.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture is still mixed around the country's wheat belt. A better for scattered showers starts on Friday and then continues into the weekend, but mostly for eastern areas. Showers may continue in the northeast next week, but the rest of the country is forecast to dry out a bit again. Wheat and canola are still being harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry and colder weather over the last few weeks has been pushing winter wheat and canola into dormancy in largely good condition. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. Very little is forecast through the end of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers overnight. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures falling Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday, above to well above normal Monday.

East: Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, well above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures well above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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