DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is taking over the U.S., pushing a trough off the East Coast on Monday. A larger trough is moving into northern Canada. That will direct storm systems mostly along and north of the border both this week and next.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The overall pattern continues for the week of Christmas with a ridge dominating the U.S. and a trough across Canada.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The pattern continues to be an overall warm one in the U.S., but cold air lingers up in Canada. A front will move through the country this weekend with areas of showers and a briefly cooler air across the north. Northern areas will continue to be the target for an active weather pattern along the border next week with a couple of storm systems to move through. Despite that, the forecast calls for largely above-normal temperatures and some record highs for Christmas, particularly for the southern half of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...86 AT 6 MILES EAST OF CATALINA FOOTHILLS, AZ AND 18 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF OCHOPEE, FL

LOW SUN...29 BELOW ZERO AT BADOURA, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...HONOLULU, HI 1.97 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is taking over the U.S., pushing a trough off the East Coast on Monday. A larger trough is moving into northern Canada. That will direct storm systems mostly along and north of the border both this week and next. Those systems may still have some important impacts to the U.S., though.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The pattern continues to be an overall warm one in the U.S., but cold air lingers up in Canada. A front will move through the country this weekend with areas of showers and a briefly cooler air across the north. Northern areas will continue to be the target for an active weather pattern along the border next week with a couple of storm systems to move through. Despite that, the forecast calls for largely above-normal temperatures and some record highs for Christmas, particularly for the southern half of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A band of snow moved through Friday and Saturday, along with some extremely cold air. But warmer air is flooding the region on Monday. A system will move along the border on Wednesday and bring through a few showers and a quick burst of colder air for Thursday. Another front will move through this weekend and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week. That may continue to bring through changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain in Canada.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A little snow went through northeastern Nebraska on Saturday, but most areas stayed dry while some cold air moved into the region. That cold air is not lasting with warmer air flooding the region on Monday. A front will sweep through with some briefly milder air and a few showers on Wednesday into Thursday, but drier and warmer conditions are largely expected for a little while longer. That is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season. Warmer air may awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A clipper brought a band of snow and an intense burst of significant cold air this weekend. That cold will leave on Monday and Tuesday from west to east. A system will bring through some showers and another brief burst of colder temperatures on Thursday, initiating more lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. Another system may do something a bit similar but with less cold air and showers this weekend. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air should cause significant melting of snow and get that moisture into the soil column.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Some showers fell across southern areas with a front that moved through this weekend along with some briefly colder air. A few showers will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by as a general below-normal precipitation pattern has been in the region this month. Water levels continue to be quite low, though some warmer air up north will melt some of the snowpack in the Midwest and give a little boost to the rivers as well. It just will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought some heavy rain to south-central Brazil on Friday and Saturday. Another front will move through with enhanced showers across the south on Monday and Tuesday. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue this week as well.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is bringing scattered showers through the country Sunday and Monday, which brought some needed rain to Buenos Aires, but has favored northern areas again. Some isolated showers may move through southern areas this week, but most areas will be dry until another front moves through this weekend. Forecasts have increased the rainfall for that front. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A secondary storm track will mean some showers across the Mediterranean this week and some needed rainfall for Italy and parts of Spain. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of the continent for dormant winter wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Some needed precipitation moved through late last week and weekend, but dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed conditions. It will be another warm and dry week this week, unfavorable for winter wheat.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers moved across some eastern areas this week, but soil moisture is still mixed around the country's wheat belt. It will be a fairly dry next several days outside of some northeastern spots that will see showers. A better chance for scattered showers starts on Friday and then continues into the weekend, but again mostly for eastern areas. Wheat and canola are still being harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting continues and early-planted areas will need to see this rain come to fruition.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system that went through on Friday and Saturday brought widespread precipitation, but light amounts. Dry and colder weather over the last few weeks has been pushing winter wheat and canola into dormancy.

Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall.

Very little is forecast through the end of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered snow. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Scattered snow. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday night-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures rising Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, falling Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures below normal Monday, rising Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers far northeast. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday, north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures near normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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