DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in western Canada with a ridge over the West and a trough in the East. The Canadian trough will move over the ridge and into the East through the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will expand eastward this weekend and a new trough will form over northern Canada, forcing the storm track largely north of the border next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warm air in the West will spread eastward early next week with largely above-normal temperatures for most of the country. Cold air will linger just north of the border though, and could sneak down behind a front or two next week. The storm track over Canada may allow for some showers across the north, and we'll see if they can draw up some moisture from the Gulf of America. But the bulk of the U.S. should enjoy a break from winter.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...91 AT 2 MILES WEST OF PALA, CA

LOW WED...8 BELOW ZERO AT CROSBY, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SEATTLE, WA 1.31 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in western Canada with a ridge over the West and a trough in the East. The Canadian trough will move over the ridge and into the East through the weekend. The ridge will expand eastward this weekend and a new trough will form over northern Canada, forcing the storm track largely north of the border next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warm air in the West will spread eastward early next week with largely above-normal temperatures for most of the country. Cold air will linger just north of the border though, and could sneak down behind a front or two next week. The storm track over Canada may allow for some showers across the north, and we'll see if they can draw up some moisture from the Gulf of America. But the bulk of the U.S. should enjoy a break from winter.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Another clipper is producing a band of mixed precipitation across the region on Thursday. One more clipper will move through Friday into Saturday, producing another band of mostly snow that could be heavy. Cold air will flow into the region Thursday, but will quickly move out by Monday, being replaced by largely warm air. Cold air will be lingering across western Canada though, and the storm track to the north may bring through some showers and a little taste of that cold next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): The storm track to the north has allowed some warmer air into the region. However, a strong cold front will move through on Friday with another blast of colder air. That should be brief though as warmer air moves in early next week. Precipitation is generally not expected, but a few spots in Nebraska could see some light amounts over the next couple of days. The storm track will be even farther north next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A clipper moved out on Wednesday after bringing widespread showers to the east. Two more clippers will bring streaks of snow through on Thursday and then Friday into Saturday. The streaks will line up fairly close to each other. Lake-effect snow will occur over the weekend as well. Another blast of extremely cold, arctic air is forecast again this weekend. It will be very intense and some areas may not make it above zero, but will only last a couple of days with warmer air moving in next week.

The storm track will shift north into Canada, but some showers may still occur next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Recent precipitation in the Midwest produced a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system throughout the winter. Two more clippers will move through the north over the next few days, keeping the Delta region fairly dry and promoting slow falls in water levels on the rivers. Some showers will be possible around the middle of next week with a front passing through, but rainfall amounts continue to trend below normal.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Central Brazil has seen a vast improvement in soil moisture due to heavy rain over the last week, favoring developing to reproductive soybeans. Showers continue there for the foreseeable future, though not at the same intensity as over the last week. A stronger system moved through the south on Tuesday with widespread rainfall and pockets of heavy rain to improve soil moisture. Another front will bring heavier showers to south-central areas on Friday and Saturday with one more early next week.

Conditions are either favorable or improving.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though the pattern has been slower with rainfall chances, soil moisture is still favorable after an active spring. A couple of chances for patchy rainfall continue this week and weekend, but rainfall is coming at a below-normal pace outside of the north and next week is forecast to be much drier. Issues with some areas getting too dry for developing corn and soybeans will be a concern with time.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): An active pattern over the last several weeks has most areas in good shape with soil moisture. Dormant wheat across the north and central are in good shape. Across the south, some showers will move through Spain over the next several days, but Italy and the Balkans will be dry. More rain would be favorable in Italy, but there isn't a concern just yet. There may be a secondary storm track across the Mediterranean next week that could bring some showers through.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems moving across northern Europe have been bringing some showers through the region this week, which continues through the weekend. Dryness and drought are still a concern this winter as wheat went dormant late and largely in questionable condition. Some southern areas have been too warm for dormancy, though some cooler air will work through over the weekend to help facilitate that.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture conditions are mixed with some areas scattered about that are too dry while some are just fine. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested while cotton and sorghum are being planted and going through early growth. Some showers will be possible in eastern growing areas over the next few days, but very little is forecast elsewhere as conditions will continue trending downward in many areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions have been favorable to end the fall season for winter wheat and canola in dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. A system moving through on Friday and Saturday will bring through widespread precipitation, but light amounts. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated snow north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures below normal Thursday-Friday, well below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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