Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Multiple clipper systems moving through the U.S. with snow and a burst of arctic air, and heavy rain in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

TWO MORE CLIPPERS FOR MIDWEST, SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND

A clipper moved out of the Midwest on Wednesday after bringing widespread showers to the east. Two more clippers will bring streaks of snow through on Thursday and then Friday into Saturday. The streaks will line up fairly close to each other. Lake-effect snow will occur over the weekend as well. Another blast of extremely cold, arctic air is forecast again this weekend. It will be very intense and some areas may not make it above zero, but will only last a couple of days with warmer air moving in next week. The storm track will shift north into Canada, but some showers may still occur next week.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MISSING OUT ON THE CLIPPER PATTERN

The storm track to the north has allowed some warmer air into the Central and Southern Plains. However, a strong cold front will move through on Friday with another blast of colder air. That should be brief though as warmer air moves in early next week. Precipitation is generally not expected, but a few spots in Nebraska could see some light amounts over the next couple of days. The storm track will be even farther north next week.

MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN BRIEF COLD AIR FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Another clipper is producing a band of mixed precipitation across the Northern Plains on Thursday. One more clipper will move through Friday into Saturday, producing another band of mostly snow that could be heavy. Cold air will flow into the region Thursday, but will quickly move out by Monday, being replaced by largely warm air. Cold air will be lingering across western Canada though, and the storm track to the north may bring through some showers and a little taste of that cold next week.

MORE RAIN NEEDED FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Recent precipitation in the Midwest produced a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system throughout the winter. Two more clippers will move through the north over the next few days, keeping the Delta region fairly dry and promoting slow falls in water levels on the rivers. Some showers will be possible around the middle of next week with a front passing through, but rainfall amounts continue to trend below normal.

BRAZIL GETTING NEEDED RAINFALL

Central Brazil has seen a vast improvement in soil moisture due to heavy rain over the last week, favoring developing to reproductive soybeans. Showers continue there for the foreseeable future, though not at the same intensity as over the last week. A stronger system moved through the south on Tuesday with widespread rainfall and pockets of heavy rain to improve soil moisture. Another front will bring heavier showers to south-central areas on Friday and Saturday with one more early next week. Conditions are either favorable or improving.

ARGENTINA GETTING DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS

Though the pattern has been slower with rainfall chances, soil moisture is still favorable in much of Argentina after an active spring. A couple of chances for patchy rainfall continue this week and weekend, but rainfall is coming at a below-normal pace outside of the north and next week is forecast to be much drier. Issues with some areas getting too dry for developing corn and soybeans will be a concern with time.

SOUTHERN EUROPE STAYING DRIER, ITALY WILL NEED MORE RAIN

An active pattern over the last several weeks has most of Europe in good shape with soil moisture. Dormant wheat across the north and central are in favorable condition. Across the south, some showers will move through Spain over the next several days, but Italy and the Balkans will be dry. More rain would be favorable in Italy, but there isn't a concern just yet. There may be a secondary storm track across the Mediterranean next week that could bring some showers through.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Systems moving across northern Europe have been bringing some showers through the Black Sea region this week, which continues through the weekend. Dryness and drought are still a concern this winter as wheat went dormant late and largely in questionable condition. Some southern areas have been too warm for dormancy, though some cooler air will work through over the weekend to help facilitate that.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture conditions in Australia are mixed with some areas scattered about that are too dry while some are just fine. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested while cotton and sorghum are being planted and going through early growth. Some showers will be possible in eastern growing areas over the next few days, but very little is forecast elsewhere as conditions will continue trending downward in many areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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