Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Multiple clipper systems moving through the U.S. with snow and reinforcing shots of cold air, and heavy rain in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

CLIPPER PATTERN FOR THE MIDWEST

Systems are favoring a clipper-like pattern across the Midwest through next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region. That includes some potential for localized heavy snow. One such streak is forecast across Iowa into northern Illinois for Saturday into Sunday. Some warmer temperatures may occur between systems, but should be brief overall. We should see some melting of the snow across the south, though. The precipitation that comes is unlikely to have much of an impact on the drought, but will increase snowpack in some areas across the north.

WARMER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

A system and cold front will move through the Central and Southern Plains this weekend. There may not be much precipitation with it and warmer air will move in after it passes. However, another strong cold front is forecast for the end of next week that could bring through another brief burst of colder air. The warmer air will eventually win out, but it may be brief too as colder air will be favored for the second half of the month.

TEMPERATURE SWINGS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN CLIPPER PATTERN

Cold air will continually be reinforced in the Northern Plains as systems and fronts move across the region through next week, but some warmer air may move in between those pushes of cold air as well. Streaks of precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop just about every day.

MORE RAIN NEEDED FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Recent precipitation in the Midwest included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. A system is moved through on Thursday with some heavy rain across the south, but will not significantly increase water levels. The lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean a slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

MUCH-NEEDED RAIN FINALLY FALLING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front has stalled over central Brazil and is producing scattered showers and much-needed heavy rainfall. Models are finally getting this right and soil moisture is increasing for developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering and setting pods. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process. This drier stretch is being broken up by decent rainfall about once per week, which will include another shot of showers along a front moving through Monday and Tuesday.

ARGENTINA GETTING PATCHY RAIN IN A DRIER STRETCH

Argentina continues to be in a drier stretch that is being interrupted by fronts with scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain. Another front will do the same this weekend. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans, although soil moisture is still largely favorable in most areas. The slow drying process will take some time to have a significant impact if it indeed continues as forecast.

WESTERN EUROPE STAYING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN

Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor northwestern Europe through next week, but also across Spain at times, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable in most areas as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation over the last six weeks or so. Though precipitation has been better late this fall, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers over the last week, which continues through much of next week as well. Dormancy is finally taking over most of the region, with a few holdouts across the far south.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA, PROMOTING FIELDWORK

Wheat and canola are being harvested in Australia while cotton and sorghum are being planted. The later crops need some more moisture as those conditions are largely mixed across the country. Limited showers are in the forecast across portions of the east through next week, but the overall trend is for drier conditions. Soil moisture conditions may be falling for the cotton and sorghum crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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