Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several reinforcing shots of cold air, along with some snow in the U.S., and heavy rain in central Brazil, are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

CLIPPER PATTERN FOR THE MIDWEST

Systems are favoring a clipper-like pattern in the Midwest through next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region. Some warmer temperatures may occur between systems, but they should be brief overall. We should see some melting of the snow across the south, though. The precipitation that comes is unlikely to have much of an impact on the drought, but will increase snowpack in some areas across the north.

GLANCING COLD AIR FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WARMER NEXT WEEK

A front continues to move through the Southern Plains on Thursday with areas of showers. Another system and cold front will move through this weekend. There may not be much precipitation with it, and warmer air will move in after it passes for next week. However, another strong cold front is forecast for the middle of next week that could bring through another brief burst of colder air. The warmer air will eventually win out, but it may be brief again as colder air will be favored for the second half of the month.

TEMPERATURE SWINGS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will continually be reinforced in the Northern Plains as systems and fronts move across the region through next week. But some warmer air may move in between those pushes of cold air as well. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every couple of days and add to the snowpack.

MORE RAIN NEEDED FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Recent precipitation in the Midwest included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. A system is moving through on Thursday with some heavy rain across the south, but will not significantly increase water levels. The lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

MUCH-NEEDED RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front has stalled over central Brazil and is producing scattered showers and much-needed heavy rainfall. Models are finally getting this right, and soil moisture is increasing for developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process. This drier stretch is being broken up by decent rainfall about once per week, which will include another shot of showers along a front moving through Monday and Tuesday.

ARGENTINA GETTING MORE RAIN IN A DRIER STRETCH

Argentina will be dry for the rest of the week, with the next front bringing showers in a patchy fashion this weekend. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country, although soil moisture is still largely favorable in most areas.

WESTERN EUROPE STAYING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN

Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor northwestern Europe through next week, but also across Spain, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable in most areas, as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers over the last week, which continues through next week as well. Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, but is finally occurring across all but the far southern areas as average temperatures continue to decline.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA, PROMOTING FIELDWORK

Wheat and canola are undergoing harvest in Australia, while cotton and sorghum are being planted. The later crops need more moisture as those conditions are largely mixed across the country. Limited showers are in the forecast across portions of the east through next week, but the overall theme is drier conditions. Soil moisture conditions may be falling for the cotton and sorghum crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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