DTN Early Word Livestock Comments
Livestock Traders May Remain Cautious Amid Choppy Trade
Cattle: Lower Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $269.48 +$2.47*
Hogs: Higher Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $100.93 +$0.57**
*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
The cattle market began on a positive note with the anticipation that there would be follow-through buying after the bounce last week. However, that did not materialize as traders exercised caution. Traders likely wanted to see positive fundamental evidence to carry contracts higher. There was a positive development in boxed beef as both categories closed higher. Choice cuts increased $2.07, with select cuts up $6.83. But traders may need more than one day of gains in boxed beef to turn the trend high. A higher cash cattle trade will need to develop, or the best that might be hoped for in the near term is sideways trade. Some higher trade developed for feeder cattle in the sale barns as the supply of cattle remains tight, and lower prices will increase feedlot interest.
Hog futures could not find renewed buying interest on the first day of the month with traders uncertain whether market fundamentals will be supportive of continued strength. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.41. This was not too negative considering the light volume of hogs purchased. Packers might be aggressive today as they want to purchase the volume of hogs they need earlier in the week rather than later. Pork cutout values gained $0.57. Any increase in demand this month may be readily met due to higher pork tonnage from heavier weights.
| BULL SIDE | BEAR SIDE | ||
| 1) | Sharply higher boxed beef prices on Monday may indicate beef demand through the holiday was strong, with retail needing to restock large amounts of beef. | 1) | The inability of cattle futures to show further strength indicates the buying exuberance of last week may have run its course. |
| 2) | Feeder cattle traded higher at auctions on Monday as cattle supplies remain low, and feedlots took advantage of the lower prices. | 2) | Packers may not be very aggressive this week in the cash market as they have been able to purchase a fair amount of cattle for slaughter this week. |
| 3) | High pork cutouts suggested holiday demand was good, and retail outlets need to restock pork products. | 3) | Hog futures were likely lower due to futures not following through to the upside on Friday. Traders may be concerned that fundamental support may be limited. |
4) | Packers might be more aggressive in the cash market as pork demand is expected to improve this month. | 4) | Traders need to see consistent strength in cash and cutouts, or hog prices will continue to flounder with limited upside potential. |
For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CST. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.
Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com
**
Mark your calendars for the next DTN Ag Summit "Planning for Success" on Dec. 3-4 from 9:30 to 11:30 a.m. CST. Sign up here: https://dtn.link/….
Cyclical challenges in the grain market and shifting power dynamics in the cattle complex highlight the necessity of preparedness, not only to mitigate risk, but also to maximize opportunities.
In our capstone DTN Ag Summit event, we'll hear directly from young farmers and ranchers about the approaches they're taking to set their businesses up for success and from DTN experts with critical outlooks to help you craft your game plan for 2026.
Featured DTN speakers include Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery, Ag Meteorologist John Baranick and Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart for respective outlooks on the grain market, weather and cattle. Senior Editor Dan Miller welcomes a panel of DTN's America's Best Young Farmers and Ranchers award recipients -- Lucas and Dana Dull and Lillie and Brian Beringer-Crock -- to discuss new avenues of business and pivots each have made to welcome more agritourism to their operations.
(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
