DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a primary trough across Hudson Bay with another trough moving through the Midwest. Additional disturbances are circling around the primary trough. There is a ridge in the North Pacific into Alaska that is supplying colder air into the trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The frequent troughs and disturbances will continue throughout the week but the ridge will finally break down this weekend, being replaced by a trough in Alaska and getting pushed down into the western U.S. Disturbances will continue over the top of that ridge and into the East next week as the primary trough is replaced by a ridge as well.

The U.S. and European models are showing some agreement in the overall picture, but have differences in some of the disturbances moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A series of clipper systems are forecast this weekend through next week that should bring through streaks of snow for the north and reinforce some of the cold. However, the western ridge will bring some warmer temperatures there that will leak into the Plains, pushing the cold air into the Midwest and Northeast.

By the end of next week, the clippers will have little cold air to work with, but that will likely be a brief period of warmth for an overall colder December.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...87 AT 17 MILES EAST OF OCHOPEE, FL, AND 13 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FLORIDA CITY, FL

LOW MON...25 BELOW ZERO AT 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF POPLAR, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST MONDAY...JUNEAU, AK 0.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a primary trough across Hudson Bay with another trough moving through the Midwest. Additional disturbances are circling around the primary trough. There is a ridge in the North Pacific into Alaska that is supplying colder air into the trough. The frequent troughs and disturbances will continue throughout the week, but the ridge will finally break down this weekend, being replaced by a trough in Alaska and getting pushed down into the western U.S.

Disturbances will continue over the top of that ridge and into the East next week as the primary trough is replaced by a ridge as well.

The U.S. and European models are showing some agreement in the overall picture, but have differences in some of the disturbances moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A series of clipper systems are forecast this weekend through next week that should bring through streaks of snow for the north and reinforce some of the cold. However, the western ridge will bring some warmer temperatures there that will leak into the Plains, pushing the cold air into the Midwest and Northeast.

By the end of next week, the clippers will have little cold air to work with, but that will likely be a brief period of warmth for an overall colder December.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Cold air will continually be reinforced as systems and fronts move across the region this week. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every couple of days. Warmer air will spread into the region next week, but may only be brief.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through on Monday with a streak of snow across Kansas and Nebraska and some rain in the southeast. Multiple fronts will continue to push through the region the rest of the week and weekend, with occasional showers and shots of colder air. Warmer air will move in next week with the main storm track shifting northward for a brief period.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system moved into the region on Monday is leaving on Tuesday, which produced some more streaks of snow. A stronger cold front will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday with some snow, but another push of intensely cold air. Systems afterward are favoring a clipper-like pattern for the weekend and next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): A system went through with scattered showers on Monday and some more heavy rain. Heavier precipitation up north included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. The local shots of precipitation have helped to raise water levels some, but are still low. Though some showers will move through the south on Thursday, the lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): The forecast has not verified very well and central Brazil is still lacking in soil moisture. A front moved through southern states on Monday and the front is forecast to enhance precipitation over central Brazil as it stalls for the rest of the week. We will await verification of the heavier rainfall. The current lack of significant soil moisture is likely to be noticeable with developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process that may be more noticeable in a couple of weeks if this keeps up.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, being quite heavy in some spots. The region will be dry for the rest of the week with the next front bringing showers in a patchy fashion this weekend into early next week. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor the northwest this week, but also across Spain, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable in most areas as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers, which continues this week and mostly across Ukraine again.

Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, but is finally occurring across all but the far southern areas as average temperatures continue to decline.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers moved across southern areas this weekend into Monday, but missed a lot of others. Wheat and canola are undergoing harvest while cotton and sorghum are being planted. The later crops need some more moisture as those conditions are largely mixed across the country. Showers will be scant this week, though.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions have been favorable to end the fall season for winter wheat and canola that are heading into dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Very little precipitation is forecast this week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Snow south. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered snow. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated snow north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated snow north Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday.

East: Scattered snow through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered snow north Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Western snow Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday, north Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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