Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several reinforcing shots of cold air along with some snow in the U.S., and a forecast for heavy rain in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MORE SNOW, COLD IN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A system moved into the Midwest on Monday is leaving on Tuesday, which produced some more streaks of snow. A stronger cold front will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday with some snow, but another push of intensely cold air. Systems afterward are favoring a clipper-like pattern for the weekend and next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region.

COLD AIR SHUTTING DOWN WINTER WHEAT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moved through the Central and Southern Plains on Monday with a streak of snow across Kansas and Nebraska and some rain in the southeast. Multiple fronts will continue to push through the region the rest of the week and weekend, with occasional showers and shots of colder air. Warmer air will move in next week with the main storm track shifting northward for a brief period.

COLD CONTINUALLY REINFORCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will continually be reinforced as systems and fronts move across the Northern Plains this week. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every couple of days. Warmer air will spread into the region next week, but may only be brief.

SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER, MORE RAIN NEEDED

A system went through the Delta with scattered showers on Monday and some more heavy rain. Heavier precipitation north in the Midwest included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. The local shots of precipitation have helped to raise water levels some, but are still low. Though some showers will move through the south on Thursday, the lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

FRONT STALLING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL WITH MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL

The forecast has not verified very well and central Brazil is still lacking in soil moisture. A front moved through southern states on Monday and the front is forecast to enhance precipitation over central Brazil as it stalls for the rest of the week. We will await verification of the heavier rainfall. The current lack of significant soil moisture is likely to be noticeable with developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process that may be more noticeable in a couple of weeks if this keeps up.

ARGENTINA DRIER AFTER HEAVY RAIN THIS PAST WEEKEND

Scattered showers moved through Argentina over the weekend, being quite heavy in some spots. The region will be dry for the rest of the week with the next front bringing showers in a patchy fashion this weekend into early next week. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country.

WESTERN EUROPE STAYING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN

Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor northwestern Europe this week, but also across Spain, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable in most areas as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION AS WHEAT GOES DORMANT

Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers, which continues this week and mostly across Ukraine again. Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, but is finally occurring across all but the far southern areas as average temperatures continue to decline.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK, PROMOTING FIELDWORK

Scattered showers moved across southern Australia this weekend into Monday, but missed a lot of others. Wheat and canola are undergoing harvest while cotton and sorghum are being planted. The later crops need some more moisture as those conditions are largely mixed across the country. Showers will be scant this week, though, favoring fieldwork.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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