Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several reinforcing shots of cold air through the U.S., and a return to a drier pattern in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MORE SNOW HEADING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Heavy snow fell across a large portion of the Midwest this past weekend, followed by a round of intense cold. Another system will move through on Monday into Tuesday with another couple of streaks of snow. A stronger cold front will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday with some snow, but another massive push of intensely cold air. Systems afterward are favoring a clipper-like pattern for the weekend and next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region, basically ending any shot of late fieldwork.

COLD AIR SHUTTING DOWN WINTER WHEAT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers favored the eastern Plains over the weekend, with snow in eastern Nebraska. Another system will move through on Monday with a streak of snow across Kansas. Multiple fronts will continue to push through the region the rest of the week and weekend, with occasional showers and shots of colder air that are causing wheat to go dormant. Warmer air will move in next week with the main storm track shifting northward.

COLD CONTINUALLY REINFORCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will continually be reinforced across the Northern Plains through much of next week, with large variability between storm systems that bring down that colder air. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every couple of days.

SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER, MORE RAIN NEEDED

A system went through the Delta with scattered showers over the weekend and included some pockets of heavy rain. Another system will move through on Monday with scattered showers. The heavier precipitation up north included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. The local shots of precipitation have helped to raise water levels some, but are still low. The lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRAZIL, CENTRAL BRAZIL AWFULLY DRY

Showers were very isolated over the weekend in central and northern Brazil. The forecast has not verified very well, and the region is still lacking in soil moisture. A front will move through southern states on Monday, and the front is forecast to enhance precipitation over central Brazil as it stalls for the rest of the week. The lack of significant rainfall is likely to be noticeable with developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process that may be more noticeable in a couple of weeks if this keeps up.

ARGENTINA DRIER AFTER HEAVY RAIN THIS PAST WEEKEND

Scattered showers moved through Argentina over the weekend, being quite heavy in some spots. Showers leave on Monday and then the region goes dry again, probably for an entire week. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country.

WESTERN EUROPE STAYING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN

Scattered showers favored the northwest and southeast portions of Europe over the weekend, but most areas on the continent have had widespread precipitation lately. Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor the northwest this week, but also across Spain, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION AS WHEAT GOES DORMANT

Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers, which continues this week and mostly across Ukraine again. Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, but is finally occurring across all but the far southern areas as average temperatures continue to decline.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK

Scattered showers moved across southern Australia this weekend, but missed a lot of others. Wheat and canola are undergoing harvest while cotton and sorghum are being planted. The latter crops need some more moisture as those conditions are largely mixed across the country. Showers will be scant this week, though.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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