DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

Multiple troughs and disturbances litter North America with a ridge in the North Pacific into Alaska. The frequent troughs and disturbances will continue throughout the week but the ridge will finally break down this weekend, being replaced by a trough of its own.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The breakdown will pressure a ridge to form in the Southwest U.S. that will try to knock out at least some of the disturbances across the rest of the continent, but may not have much success until later next week.

The U.S. and European models are showing some agreement, but have differences in some of the disturbances moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the north like a clipper this weekend, with some breezy winds, snow, and a shot of reinforced cold air. A couple more clippers will try to do something similar next week. Some warm air will try to move into the Plains, keeping the systems farther north and directing the cold air to the Midwest and East.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...87 AT NAPLES, FL

LOW SUN...27 BELOW ZERO AT 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF POPLAR, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7AM CST SUNDAY...LAKE CHARLES, LA 1.28 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

Multiple troughs and disturbances litter North America with a ridge in the North Pacific into Alaska. The frequent troughs and disturbances will continue throughout the week, but the ridge will finally break down this weekend, being replaced by a trough of its own. That will pressure a ridge to form in the Southwest U.S. that will try to knock out at least some of the disturbances across the rest of the continent, but may not have much success until later next week.

The U.S. and European models are showing some agreement, but have differences in some of the disturbances moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the north like a clipper this weekend, with some breezy winds, snow, and a shot of reinforced cold air. A couple more clippers will try to do something similar next week. Some warm air will try to move into the Plains, keeping the systems farther north and directing the cold air to the Midwest and East.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Cold air will continually be reinforced across the region through much of next week, with large variability between storm systems that bring down that colder air. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every couple of days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers favored the east over the weekend, with snow in eastern Nebraska. Another system will move through on Monday with a streak of snow across Kansas. Multiple fronts will continue to push through the region the rest of the week and weekend, with occasional showers and shots of colder air. Warmer air will move in next week with the main storm track shifting northward.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Heavy snow fell across a large portion of the region this past weekend, followed by a round of intense cold. Another system will move through on Monday into Tuesday with another couple of streaks of snow. A stronger cold front will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday with some snow, but another massive push of intensely cold air.

Systems afterward are favoring a clipper-like pattern for the weekend and next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region, basically ending any shot of late fieldwork.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): A system went through with scattered showers over the weekend and included some pockets of heavy rain. Another system will move through on Monday with scattered showers. The heavier precipitation up north included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. The local shots of precipitation have helped to raise water levels some, but are still low. The lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers were very isolated over the weekend in central and northern Brazil. The forecast has not verified very well and the region is still lacking in soil moisture. A front will move through southern states on Monday and the front is forecast to enhance precipitation over central Brazil as it stalls for the rest of the week. The lack of significant rainfall is likely to be noticeable with developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process that may be more noticeable in a couple of weeks if this keeps up.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, being quite heavy in some spots. Showers leave on Monday and then the region goes dry again, probably for an entire week. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather are likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers favored the northwest and southeast portions of the region over the weekend, but most areas on the continent have had widespread precipitation lately. Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor the northwest this week, but also across Spain, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers, which continues this week and mostly across Ukraine again.

Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, but is finally occurring across all but the far southern areas as average temperatures continue to decline.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers moved across southern areas this weekend, but missed a lot of others. Wheat and canola are undergoing harvest while cotton and sorghum are being planted. The later crops need some more moisture as those conditions are largely mixed across the country. Showers will be scant this week, though.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions have been favorable to end the fall season for winter wheat and canola that are heading into dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Very little precipitation is forecast this week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Heavy snow. Temperatures below normal.

East: Heavy snow. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered snow south Monday. Isolated snow north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated snow north Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday.

East: Scattered snow through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Western snow Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday, north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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