DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A trough is deepening in the Midwest while a ridge is found up in Alaska. The trough will continue to bring down cold air through Thanksgiving. A trough will move underneath the Alaskan ridge and drop into the West on Friday. At the same time, another trough will push down from the North Pole into Hudson Bay and the two troughs should bring through bursts of cold air and energy for winter storm systems for early December.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A cold and active weather pattern is forecast for early December that should mean multiple chances for wintry impacts for the first week of December.

The U.S. and European models have the same idea, but are different on the details regarding some big storms this weekend and next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

After a big storm moves through the eastern half of the country this weekend, arctic cold will follow behind it across the Plains and Midwest. The Southeast will not be nearly as cold and a second system is likely to form somewhere in that vicinity early next week, getting more widespread rain south and snow north in the first few days of December. More cold fronts may move through at least the northern portions of the country mid- and late next week, reinforcing some of that cold air and bringing additional precipitation.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...93 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX, AND 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX

LOW TUE...5 BELOW ZERO AT 20 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DUBOIS, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST TUESDAY...JACKSON, MS 2.93 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is deepening in the Midwest while a ridge is found up in Alaska. The trough will continue to bring down cold air through Thanksgiving. A trough will move underneath the Alaskan ridge and drop into the West on Friday. At the same time, another trough will push down from the North Pole into Hudson Bay and the two troughs should bring through bursts of cold air and energy for winter storm systems for early December. The Southeast may be spared the worst of the cold as a ridge forms there next week.

The U.S. and European models have the same idea, but are different on the details regarding some big storms this weekend and next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

After a big storm moves through the eastern half of the country this weekend, arctic cold will follow behind it across the Plains and Midwest. The Southeast will not be nearly as cold and a second system is likely to form somewhere in that vicinity early next week, getting more widespread rain south and snow north in the first few days of December. More cold fronts may move through at least the northern portions of the country mid- and late next week, reinforcing some of that cold air and bringing additional precipitation.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought some heavy snow to northern areas on Tuesday, along with strong winds that created blizzard conditions for at least a while. A big drop in temperature has followed behind it and will be in place the rest of the week. Even more cold air will move in behind another system that will move through Friday and Saturday. Again, heavy snow and strong winds could create blizzard conditions and temperatures will fall like a rock behind it, ushering in winter and ending fieldwork opportunities.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front moved through on Tuesday with a burst of much cooler air and will setup a significant winter storm system that will move into the region on Friday and Saturday. Models are working out the details, but heavy rain, severe weather, snow, and strong winds are all possible. Northeast Nebraska has the best chance at accumulating snow on Saturday. That will be followed by a massive burst of arctic air that will send most winter wheat areas dormant as we usher in winter. Another system may move through early next week that may have impacts as well, but the forecast is for milder conditions by the end of next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved through on Monday and Tuesday with scattered rain showers. And a clipper system immediately followed on Tuesday that is moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday. That system is bringing through some breezy winds with heavy snow across the north, along with a burst of much cooler air that will turn on the lake-effect snow through Friday. Another big system will move into the region late Friday and continue east through the weekend. More widespread heavy snow is forecast with this system, especially from Iowa through Michigan. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air that will set the stage for an overall cold December. A couple of additional systems may move through next week that could have wintry impacts as well, but models are struggling with their development. For those with fieldwork to do, the window is closing rapidly.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels have risen on the Mississippi River but are still low. However, heavy rain earlier this week and more coming up will be helpful. A major winter storm is forecast to move through the country this weekend with another a couple of days later.

These systems may produce enough to boost water levels for at least a brief moment to reduce restrictions, though that is uncertain. A more active weather pattern is forecast for the winter, which should produce more beneficial precipitation to aid water levels with time.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue in central and northern Brazil throughout the week. A front will move through the south Sunday and Monday, but showers are forecast to be brief. Overall, below-normal rainfall is in the forecast through early December, which may start to turn conditions around as we move into the heart of the growing season. Good soil moisture is still in place across the south so that should be a slow process.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture remains high across the country, but the country is in a drier pattern. Despite that, a front will move through with scattered showers this weekend and some areas may see heavy rain.

Otherwise, dry weather continues into December. Without heat causing stress, the loss of soil moisture will be slow to occur, but appears to produce momentum for worsening weather conditions with time.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue to move across the continent in waves through next week, which has been the case for several weeks now. That has been favorable for winter grains. Some areas in the east have seen significant snowfall, and recent cool temperatures have pushed some areas into dormancy across the central and north. Very few areas on the continent are in poor shape heading into winter.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe will only produce limited showers through next week, and mostly across the northwest again. Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, which should have occurred for most areas by now, but is probably not found in anything other than far northern areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Patchy rainfall has been the norm for the last several weeks, leading to mixed conditions. That trend continues this week. Wheat and canola harvest continues to increase, but soil moisture is lacking in some areas for the cotton and sorghum crops, with planting ongoing between showers.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall drier conditions continue to favor the remaining corn and soybean harvest in the northeast. Drier weather recently has allowed soggy soils to drain in central China, being more favorable for winter wheat and canola that are heading into dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Snow north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered rain and snow Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday.

East: Lake-effect snow through Friday. Scattered rain and snow Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures falling.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday-Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, mostly north. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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