DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...95 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW MON...1 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST MONDAY...SAN ANGELO, TX 2.03 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Midwest with another in the Northern Plains.

Meanwhile, a ridge is found up in Alaska. Both troughs will continue eastward over the next couple of days, with the Plains trough strengthening over the Great Lakes and East. The Alaskan ridge is supplying cold air into this trough.

Another trough will move underneath that ridge and drop into the West on Friday where it should deepen significantly this weekend. At the same time, another trough will push down from the North Pole into Hudson Bay and the two troughs should bring through bursts of cold air and energy for winter storm systems for early December. The Southeast may be spared as a ridge forms there next week.

The U.S. and European models have the same idea, but are different on the details regarding some big storms this weekend and next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.

A winter storm is forecast to move through the eastern half of the country this weekend with widespread impacts including heavy snow, heavy rain, and a burst of very cold air. A couple more systems are possible across the country next week, though models are having a very difficult time trying to forecast their development. What models do agree on is a rather cold week across most of the U.S. outside of the Southeast. Expect a lot of changes to your local forecast through at least early December.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues to move through on Tuesday, causing a big drop in temperature and a band of heavy snow across the north. Strong winds may create some brief blizzard conditions as well. A burst of cold air is moving in and will be in place the rest of the week, but will be significantly colder behind another system that will move through Friday and Saturday. Again, heavy snow and strong winds could create blizzard conditions and temperatures will fall like a rock behind it, ushering in winter and ending fieldwork opportunities.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system pushed out on Monday after bringing through some heavy rain across Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A stronger cold front is pushing through on Tuesday with a burst of cooler air, but will setup a significant winter storm system that will move into the region on Friday and Saturday. Models are working out the details, but heavy rain, severe weather, snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions are all possible. That will be followed by a massive burst of arctic air that will send most areas dormant as we usher in winter. A couple of storms may follow for next week that may have massive impacts as well, but models are having even more trouble trying to decide how to develop them.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved in on Monday with a system that moves out on Tuesday. However, it is being immediately be followed by a clipper system for Tuesday and Wednesday. That system will bring through some breezy winds and heavy snow across the north, along with a burst of much cooler air and lake-effect snow for Wednesday through Friday. The region should see a major winter system this weekend. While models are still working out the details, there is potential for just about everything including heavy rain and snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air that will set the stage for an overall cold December. A couple of additional systems may move through next week that could have wintry impacts as well, but models are struggling with their development. For those with fieldwork to do, the window is closing rapidly.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels have risen on the Mississippi River after last week's rainfall, but are still low.

However, some heavy rain moved through on Monday that will be helpful. A major winter storm is forecast to move through the country this weekend and several others may follow for early December. These systems may produce enough to boost water levels for at least a brief moment to reduce restrictions, though that is uncertain. A more active weather pattern is forecast for the winter, which should produce more beneficial precipitation to aid water levels with time.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue in central and northern Brazil throughout the week. A front will move through the south this weekend into early next week, but showers are forecast to be brief. Overall, below-normal rainfall is in the forecast heading into December, which may start to turn conditions around as we move into the heart of the growing season. Good soil moisture is still in place across the south so that should be a slow process.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture remains high across the country. However, the weather pattern is much drier. A front will move through with scattered showers this weekend, otherwise dry weather continues into December. Without heat causing stress, the loss of soil moisture will be slow to occur, but appears to produce momentum for worsening weather conditions with time.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue to move across the continent for most areas this week, which has been the case for several weeks now, being favorable for winter grains. Some areas in the east have seen significant snowfall, and recent cool temperatures have pushed some areas into dormancy across the north. Very few areas on the continent are in poor shape heading into winter.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently, including over the weekend.

Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe will only produce limited showers this week, and mostly across the northwest again. Above-normal temperatures are slowing the progress toward dormancy, which should have occurred for most areas by now, but is probably not found in anything other than far northern areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Patchy rainfall has been the norm for the last several weeks, leading to mixed conditions. That trend continues this week. Wheat and canola harvest continues to increase, but soil moisture is lacking in some areas for the cotton and sorghum crops, which starts up planting shortly.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall drier conditions continue to favor the remaining corn and soybean harvest in the northeast. Drier weather recently has allowed soggy soils to drain in central China, being more favorable for winter wheat and canola that are heading into dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Snow north Tuesday into Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered rain and snow Friday-Saturday. Temperatures falling Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

East: Scattered showers Tuesday. Lake-effect snow Wednesday-Friday. Scattered rain and snow Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures below to well below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures falling Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below to well below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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