Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A colder and more volatile weather pattern setting up this week in the U.S., and overall drying conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

BLAST OF COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEK, BIG WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers moved into the Midwest on Monday with a system that moves out on Tuesday. However, it is being immediately followed by a clipper system for Tuesday and Wednesday. That system will bring through some breezy winds and heavy snow across the north, along with a burst of much cooler air and lake-effect snow for Wednesday through Friday. The region should see a major winter system this weekend. While models are still working out the details, there is potential for just about everything including heavy rain and snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air that will set the stage for an overall cold December. A couple of additional systems may move through next week that could have wintry impacts as well, but models are struggling with their development. For those with fieldwork to do, the window is closing rapidly.

WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system pushed out of the Central and Southern Plains on Monday after bringing through some heavy rain across Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A stronger cold front is pushing through on Tuesday with a burst of cooler air, but will set up a significant winter storm system that will move into the region on Friday and Saturday. Models are working out the details, but heavy rain, severe weather, snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions are all possible. That will be followed by a massive burst of arctic air that will send most areas dormant as we usher in winter. A couple of storms may follow for next week that may have massive impacts as well, but models are having even more trouble trying to decide how to develop them.

COLD AIR SETTLING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WITH HEAVY SNOW

A system continues to move through the Northern Plains on Tuesday, causing a big drop in temperature and a band of heavy snow across the north. Strong winds may create some brief blizzard conditions as well. A burst of cold air is moving in and will be in place the rest of the week, but will be significantly colder behind another system that will move through Friday and Saturday. Again, heavy snow and strong winds could create blizzard conditions and temperatures will fall like a rock behind it, ushering in winter and ending fieldwork opportunities.

SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER, MORE RAIN NEEDED

Water levels have risen on the Mississippi River after last week's rainfall but are still low. However, some heavy rain moved through on Monday that will be helpful. A major winter storm is forecast to move through the country this weekend and several others may follow for early December. These systems may produce enough to boost water levels for at least a brief moment to reduce restrictions, though that is uncertain. A more active weather pattern is forecast for the winter, which should produce more beneficial precipitation to aid water levels with time.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL SLOWLY DRYING OUT

Scattered showers continue in central and northern Brazil throughout the week. A front will move through the south this weekend into early next week, but showers are forecast to be brief. Overall, below-normal rainfall is in the forecast heading into December, which may start to turn conditions around as we move into the heart of the growing season. Good soil moisture is still in place across the south so that should be a slow process.

ARGENTINA TRENDING DRIER DESPITE STRONGER FRONT THIS WEEKEND

Soil moisture remains high across Argentina. However, the weather pattern is much drier. A front will move through with scattered showers this weekend, otherwise dry weather continues into December. Without heat causing stress, the loss of soil moisture will be slow to occur but appears to produce momentum for worsening weather conditions with time.

EUROPE REMAINS IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN

Scattered showers continue to move across Europe for most areas this week, which has been the case for several weeks now, being favorable for winter grains. Some areas in the east have seen significant snowfall, and recent cool temperatures have pushed some areas into dormancy across the north. Very few areas on the continent are in poor shape heading into winter.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently, including over the weekend. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe will only produce limited showers this week, and mostly across the northwest again. Above-normal temperatures are slowing the progress toward dormancy, which should have occurred for most areas by now, but is probably not found in anything other than far northern areas.

SHOWERS LIMITED IN AUSTRALIA

Patchy rainfall has been the norm for the last several weeks in Australia, leading to mixed conditions. That trend continues this week. Wheat and canola harvest continues to increase, but soil moisture is lacking in some areas for the cotton and sorghum crops, which starts up planting shortly.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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