DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Plains with a ridge to the East. Another trough is in western Canada. Both troughs will move eastward early this week with the Canadian trough trailing slightly but being the much stronger one. It will get into the Great Lakes on Wednesday and significantly deepen. A ridge is forming over Alaska which will supply colder air into the trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move underneath that ridge and drop into the West on Friday where it should deepen significantly this weekend. At the same time, another trough will push down from the North Pole into Hudson Bay and the two troughs are forecast to wreak havoc across North America for early December with frequent bursts of cold air and energy for winter storm systems.

The U.S. and European models have the same idea, but are different on the details regarding some big storms this weekend and next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A major winter storm will move into the Plains on Friday and Saturday, moving eastward through the country over the weekend. Widespread impacts including heavy snow, severe weather, and strong winds are likely, followed by a burst of arctic air. Another system may be on its heels for early next week and yet another may move through mid-late next week in the cold air. Models are likely to change based on the massive change in temperature coming up.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...91 AT 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX, 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX, AND MCALLEN, TX

LOW SUN...6 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST SUNDAY...CORPUS CHRISTI, TX 1.93 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Plains with a ridge to the East. Another trough is in western Canada. Both troughs will move eastward early this week with the Canadian trough trailing slightly but being the much stronger one. It will get into the Great Lakes on Wednesday and significantly deepen. A ridge is forming over Alaska which will supply colder air into the trough. Another trough will move underneath that ridge and drop into the West on Friday where it should deepen significantly this weekend. At the same time, another trough will push down from the North Pole into Hudson Bay and the two troughs are forecast to wreak havoc across North America for early December with frequent bursts of cold air and energy for winter storm systems.

The U.S. and European models have the same idea, but are different on the details regarding some big storms this weekend and next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A major winter storm will move into the Plains on Friday and Saturday, moving eastward through the country over the weekend. Widespread impacts including heavy snow, severe weather, and strong winds are likely, followed by a burst of arctic air. Another system may be on its heels for early next week and yet another may move through mid-late next week in the cold air. Models are likely to change based on the massive change in temperature coming up.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was dry but breezy and warm over the weekend. A system will move through like a clipper Monday and Tuesday, causing a big drop in temperature and a band of snow across the north. Cold air will remain in place the rest of the week but will be significantly colder behind another system that will move through Friday and Saturday. Heavy snow and strong winds could create blizzard conditions and temperatures will fall like a rock behind it, ushering in winter and ending fieldwork opportunities.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system moved in on Sunday with scattered showers and some thunderstorms that will continue through Monday. A stronger cold front will push through on Tuesday with a burst of cooler air but will setup a significant winter storm system that will move into the region on Friday and Saturday. Models are working out the details, but heavy rain, severe weather, snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions are all possible. That will be followed by a massive burst of arctic air that will send most areas dormant as we usher in winter. A couple of storms may follow for next week that may have massive impacts as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers ended on Friday with a system that moved across the region. Another system will spread rain through the region on Monday, which will immediately be followed by a clipper system for Tuesday and Wednesday. That system will bring through some breezy winds and snow, along with a burst of much cooler air and lake-effect snow. The region should see a major winter system this weekend. While models are still working out the details, there is potential for just about everything including severe weather, heavy rain, snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. That will be followed by a very big burst of arctic air that will set the stage for an overall cold December. A couple of additional systems may move through next week that could have wintry impacts as well. For those with fieldwork to do, the window is closing rapidly.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels have risen on the Mississippi River after last week's rainfall but are still low.

However, some showers will move through with a system Monday into Tuesday that will be helpful. A major winter storm is forecast to move through the country this weekend and several others may follow for early December. These systems may produce enough to boost water levels for at least a brief moment to reduce restrictions, though that is uncertain. A more active weather pattern is forecast for the winter, which should produce more beneficial precipitation to aid water levels with time.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front across the north filled in with showers over the weekend across central Brazil. Showers should occur here throughout the week. A front will move through the south over the weekend, but showers are forecast to be brief. Overall, below-normal rainfall is in the forecast heading into December, which may start to turn conditions around as we move into the heart of the growing season. Good soil moisture is still in place across the south so that should be a slow process.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture remains high for early this growing season. However, the weather pattern is much drier. A front will move through with scattered showers Friday and Saturday, otherwise dry weather continues into December. Without heat causing stress, the loss of soil moisture will be slow to occur but appears to produce momentum for worsening weather conditions in the country.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through a lot of the country over the weekend, which continues for most areas this week as well.

Some areas in the east have seen significant snowfall, and recent cool temperatures have pushed some areas into dormancy across the north. Very few areas on the continent are in poor shape heading into winter.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently, including over the weekend.

Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe will only produce limited showers this week, and mostly across the northwest again. Above-normal temperatures are slowing the progress toward dormancy, which should have occurred for most areas by now, but is probably not found in anything other than far northern areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers went through eastern areas of the country over the weekend but were patchy and missed a lot of areas. Wheat and canola harvest continues to increase, but soil moisture is lacking in some areas for the coming cotton and sorghum crops, which starts up shortly.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall drier conditions continue to favor the remaining corn and soybean harvest in the northeast. Drier weather recently has allowed soggy soils to drain in central China, being more favorable for winter wheat and canola that are heading into dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Monday. Snow north Tuesday into Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered rain and snow Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, falling Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Lake-effect snow Wednesday-Thursday.

Scattered rain and snow Friday night. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below normal Saturday, below normal west and above normal east Sunday-Monday, below to well below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, falling Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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