DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with troughs in the Southern Plains, Southwest, and Ontario. The Canadian and Plains troughs will move eastward in tandem over the next two days, but the ridge will largely remain. The Southwest trough will move eastward early next week. Another trough currently up in Alaska will drop into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday and push through the country next week behind the Southwest trough, deepening as it does so.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another big trough is forecast to move into the West next weekend as our pattern going into early December turns generally colder and more volatile.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar at the moment, but have been having trouble staying consistent for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is colder.

A push of cold air will be moving through the country mid-late next week.

Some moderation may occur across the Southeast next weekend ahead of another storm system that will move through the country next weekend into early December, perhaps in a few waves. Much colder air is likely to follow behind those systems.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...92 AT 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX, 2 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TELFERNER, TX, AND 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW THU...3 AT SARANAC LAKE, NY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 3.86 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with troughs in the Southern Plains, Southwest, and Ontario. The Canadian and Plains troughs will move eastward in tandem over the next two days, but the ridge will largely remain. The Southwest trough will move eastward early next week. Another trough currently up in Alaska will drop into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday and push through the country next week behind the Southwest trough, deepening as it does so. Another big trough is forecast to move into the West next weekend as our pattern going into early December turns generally colder and more volatile.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar at the moment, but have been having trouble staying consistent for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is colder.

A push of cold air will be moving through the country mid-late next week.

Some moderation may occur across the Southeast next weekend ahead of another storm system that will move through the country next weekend into early December, perhaps in a few waves. Much colder air is likely to follow behind those systems.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions are forecast until a significant cold front moves through early next week. Along with chances for rain changing to snow, temperatures are forecast to take a massive dive behind that front and a much colder pattern is forecast to continue into December. That will shut down any winter wheat and start to freeze soils a bit early this year. Any areas with fieldwork to do have limited time in which to do so.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A strong system is exiting on Friday after producing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall.

Another system is forecast to move through Sunday and Monday with more showers and chances for heavy rain. The heavy rain should be favorable for building soil moisture and reducing drought. Some flooding will be possible though, especially across Texas where it has already been observed in some areas.

Though temperatures are quite, a blast of colder air is forecast to move through behind next week's system, though to what degree is still being worked out by models. Another storm system or two are likely for next weekend into early December which may produce wintry precipitation and more cold air. The window for getting fieldwork done is shutting down, particularly across the north.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system that produced some heavy rain across the south on Thursday continues on Friday. Another system is forecast for Monday and Tuesday that could bring through some significant precipitation as well. The rain could improve soil moisture and reduce some of the drought in the region. However, very cold air is forecast to push through behind it for Thanksgiving in the start of a much colder and volatile pattern going into December. Major wintry precipitation and more cold air is in the forecast in this pattern that will shut down fieldwork opportunities.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, but they have gotten a boost from rain earlier this week and again here on Friday. Another system should bring beneficial rainfall to the river basin early next week. Though the boosts are nice, they may not be long lasting as drought surrounds the Delta region. However, this could be the start of a much better weather pattern for the region that could bring up water levels over the winter.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front remains stalled in the north.

Showers are building to the south through central Brazil through this weekend and are forecast to be heavy through next week. A front moving up from Argentina is not likely to have significant precipitation with with it over southern Brazil, the start of a drier pattern for the region. Slowly worsening conditions for corn and soybeans are possible there as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture remains high for early this growing season. However, an overall drier pattern is starting to set up for the country. A front moved through Thursday into Friday, but only produced patchy precipitation. Another such front will produce patchy precipitation later next week. It may take some time and be slow to occur, but soil moisture may slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue across much of the continent going into next week. Temperatures are colder now though and some of these showers will fall as snow, which could be heavy through this weekend from Hungary into southern Poland. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A couple of systems have been moving through this week, but have been producing limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. The same goes for next week as well. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture conditions continue to be mixed across the country. Showers have been favoring western areas this week while eastern areas are only getting some isolated showers this weekend. Another wave of showers will be possible in the east on Tuesday, but will be scattered. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Dry conditions are largely forecast going into early December, helpful across the north but detrimental for the south.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers southwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, falling Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Lake-effect snow Thursday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, falling Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday.

Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near normal Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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