DTN Early Word Livestock Comments

Cattle: Lower Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $270.39 +$0.50*

Hogs: Higher Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $101.50 -$1.62*

*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders were hesitant to buy into the cattle market aggressively Tuesday. The reduction of tariffs on certain countries, announced on Friday, has created uncertainty about the potential impact on beef imports. Along with that uncertainty is the upcoming Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for release Friday. The report is not expected to show any substantial increase in cattle numbers, if any at all, but the uncertainty may keep futures choppy the rest of the week. Traders have been waiting for the resumption of the Commitments of Traders report to see the position of fund traders. A report will be released Wednesday, but it will not be up to date and will reflect traders' positions as of Sept. 30. It will take until the end of January for these reports to become timely again. The report will be somewhat meaningless as it plays catch-up. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $1.54 and select down $1.35.

The hog market has been frustrating as it has been unable to find solid fundamental support. Futures fell below the previous low again, leaving the downtrend intact. Packers were not aggressive in the cash market on Tuesday, with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report down $0.58. They should step up Wednesday, as they need to purchase significantly more hogs than they already have so far this week. Pork cutouts continue to struggle as demand remains lackluster. Futures remain oversold, with the brief strength last week doing little to change that position.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Some hope has surfaced that cash cattle prices may be no worse than steady this week. Packers do not seem to have many cattle purchased for deferred delivery.	1)	The upcoming Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday. This may keep futures sideways the rest of the week.
2)	Cattle futures have chart gaps above the market that may be filled at some point.	2)	Traders see too much uncertainty in the market at this time to generate buying interest. Further weakness is possible.
3)	Packers should be more aggressive Wednesday and bid higher for hogs as they need to increase their purchases for the week.	3)	Continued lower lows in hog futures keeps the downtrend intact and traders bearish.
4)	Hog futures are oversold and could see a repeat of the movement of futures last week before the end of the month.	4)	The decline in cash and cutouts has not been able to generate greater demand for pork.

For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CST. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.

Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.