Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A more active weather pattern in the U.S., low water levels on the Mississippi River, and overall drying conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST IMPROVING SOIL MOISTURE

A system is bringing through scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the Midwest on Tuesday. A much bigger system will move through Thursday and Friday with more widespread precipitation. Another system is forecast for early next week that could be the start of a much colder pattern going into December. The rain will improve soil moisture for winter wheat and could reduce some of the drought in the region before that, though.

RAINFALL FORECAST INCREASING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moved through the Central and Southern Plains on Monday but with limited showers across the north. A stronger system will move in on Wednesday with widespread rainfall through Friday. Yet another system is forecast to move in early next week with more showers and potential for heavy rain. The rain will be welcome for winter wheat. Though temperatures are forecast to be quite warm into next week, a big change may come on or just after Thanksgiving with a bigger system and a massive cold burst.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS IN ACTIVE PATTERN

Some showers will be possible in the Northern Plains through Wednesday with a couple systems passing nearby. The same goes for a couple of systems this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will likely take a massive dive around Thanksgiving or just after as a big cold pattern is on the horizon.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW

Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. A more active weather pattern is setting up for the rest of November, but that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region. This could be the start of a more favorable weather pattern for the winter, however.

HEAVY RAIN MIGRATING TO CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front brought a wave of heavy rainfall through Brazil over the last couple of days. The front is stalling out in the north and showers will slowly build there and back to the south through central Brazil later this week and weekend. Fronts moving up from Argentina are less likely to have significant precipitation with them over southern Brazil, which may be on the precipice of some worsening conditions for corn and soybeans as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

ARGENTINA TRENDING DRIER

A front moved through with widespread and mostly heavy precipitation over the weekend, which has continued to keep soil moisture high for early this growing season. However, this may be the last front that produces this type of widespread precipitation for a while. A front will move through Thursday into Friday, but is expected to have only patchy showers. The same goes for another next week. Soil conditions are currently favorable, but we may start to see those slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS EUROPE

Scattered showers continue across much of Europe going into next week. Temperatures are falling and some of these showers will fall as snow, which could be heavy later this week and weekend from Austria into southern Poland. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH BLACK SEA REGION

A couple of systems will move through the Black Sea region this week, but are forecast to produce limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year. Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy across the north.

SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture conditions are still largely mixed across Australia. Showers will favor western areas this week while eastern areas are forecast to be much drier. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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