Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A burst of colder air east of the Rockies this weekend into early next week, lake-effect snow around the Great Lakes, a return to lower water levels on the Mississippi River, and showers across central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

INTENSE COLD SPREADING THROUGH MIDWEST, CREATING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW

The Midwest continues to be under the gun from multiple clipper systems that will move through the region. One of them moving through this weekend will bring down some colder air for a couple of days. That cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes could add up to some significant lake-effect snow in some prone areas. Winds should be breezy with all the clippers moving through, but precipitation should be rather limited outside of the lake-effect. Overall, conditions are still favorable for the remaining harvest and other fieldwork.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STAYING DRY

The storm track continues to be well to the north of the Central and Southern Plains, which should leave the region drier despite some fronts moving through. One of those fronts will bring down some cold air for Sunday and Monday, but temperatures will quickly rise afterward. The dryness is not a major concern in November as falling temperatures throughout the month will eventually get wheat into more of a dormant state. It will help with harvest and fieldwork, instead.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS DESPITE CLIPPERS MOVING THROUGH

A couple of clippers will move through the Northern Plains that should bring some limited precipitation through Saturday. That may include some snow on Saturday as well. Temperatures will fall drastically with that system, but only briefly as temperatures rise next week. Breezy winds may also be an issue, which would be more of a concern for combine fires when the humidity is too low.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS FALLING

Water levels are falling on the Mississippi River. Very little precipitation from a couple of fronts this week and complete dryness next week will mean that water levels will return to some hazardous levels for the second half of November if the pattern doesn't change to bring more systems through the middle of the country. That pattern may be coming, but it does not guarantee improved precipitation chances.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front remains active with showers in central and northern Brazil through next week as it continually gets reinforced by fronts moving up from Argentina. Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but showers may be heavier into next week and be more beneficial.

OVERALL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

Soil moisture is still rather good for early growth on corn and sunflowers in Argentina. Soils are primed for soybean planting which will be increasing this month. Winter wheat has been in really good shape, though consistent rainfall has increased disease pressure. Two more fronts will move through over the next couple of days and again next week, which keep conditions overall favorable. However, longer-range models indicate that the weather pattern may turn drier afterward, a possible turning point in the overall weather conditions.

HIGH SOIL MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF EUROPE

Drier weather is in place for the eastern half of Europe for the rest of this week and weekend, but systems moving through the Atlantic will produce some additional rain from the UK down through Spain. One of those systems will likely move through the Mediterranean with beneficial showers this weekend and early next week, catching southeastern Europe with showers as well. Weather conditions are still overall favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

DRIER IN THE BLACK SEA REGION AGAIN

Showers in October have improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the Black Sea region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A stretch of drier weather continues through the weekend. Some showers may be possible next week which may be helpful for some areas. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. If showers do not come with the warmth, wheat plants will continue growing in some fairly insufficient soil moisture. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

One more system will move through Australia to end the week, but with limited precipitation that will be beneficial for some areas and miss others. Spotty showers are in the forecast for next week as well. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature, there is less time for rain to be beneficial before harvest starts up and cotton and sorghum are planted.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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