We'd Like To Mention

Negative operating incomes for America's crop farmers are causing a bumper crop of angst as the 2025 harvest comes to an end. Grain prices are down, while it seems nearly every expense to produce a crop is up. Tariffs and trade disputes are only adding to the economic stress. Whether it's row crops or specialty crops, farmers are suffering.

No one knows this more than U.S. soybean farmers. Their economic headwinds are linked in part to the tariff war between the U.S. and China. Following President Donald Trump's action to place tariffs on Chinese goods, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of up to 34% on U.S. soybeans, making them less competitive compared to South American soybeans.

As of this writing, in the current crop marketing year, the U.S. has made zero soybean sales to China as the two economic powers maneuver to gain leverage over broader trade negotiations. China was once our largest soybean customer, purchasing up to one-third of American-grown soybeans -- or some 60% of our soybean exports -- worth about $12.5 billion annually.

DEJA VU

America's soybean farmers have been caught in this trade crossfire before. President Trump's first term also saw a trade war with China. As a result, U.S. export values declined by $9 billion (73%) for soybeans, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Other commodities also saw a drop in sales -- 67% for wheat, 61% for corn and 37% for sorghum. Congress took action and provided $28 billion in direct payments to farmers for the lost income.

The Trump administration is again planning an aid package in response to the current trade dispute. President Trump recently posted on social media: "The soybean farmers of our country are being hurt because China is, for 'negotiating' reasons only, not buying. We've made so much money on tariffs, that we are going to take a small portion of that money, and help our farmers."

That may be welcome relief in the short term, but it does little to repair trade relations. Soybean farmers are already concerned there has been irreparable damage to a vital export customer. Adding alarm to the lost soybean sales is Brazil. It has surpassed the U.S. as the world's largest soybean producer. China turned to Brazil when President Trump launched his first trade war. World Bank data shows Brazilian beans last year accounted for more than 70% of China's imports; U.S. share was down to 21%. Competition with Brazil will only increase as it continues to expand soybean acres.

TIME IS NOW

The Trump administration's call for increasing domestic soybean demand via biofuels and new uses, for example, and cultivating new export markets certainly makes sense to boost sales, but that will take time. And, neither can replace China in one shot.

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were scheduled to meet at the end of October. Agricultural trade needs to be at the top of their agenda. It's time to bring down the bluster and posturing, and get a deal done. Trade wars benefit no one.

"The longer trade disputes continue, unfortunately, the more storm clouds gather over farm country," stresses American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall. "Farmers can face long-term effects because of the uncertainty and disruptions that tariffs bring. Many countries may decide to simply buy agricultural products elsewhere, and it can be difficult to recover those markets once they're lost."

Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), agrees. "U.S. farmers cannot wait and hope any longer," he stressed in a press release. "ASA is calling on President Trump and his negotiating team to prioritize securing an immediate deal on soybeans with China. The farm economy is suffering while our competitors supplant the United States in the biggest soybean import market in the world."

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-- Email Gregg Hillyer at gregg.hillyer@dtn.com, or follow Gregg on social platform X @GreggHillyer

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