DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East, a ridge in eastern Canada, and another ridge in the West. A disturbance passing through the gap between the ridges will move down into the Southeast this weekend. The western ridge will become the dominant one this weekend and another trough will move through Canada north of it.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will have a tendency to spread eastward next week, but another disturbance will disrupt it as it moves through the U.S. later next week and weekend. Many more disturbances are lining up to either move over or through the ridge going into mid-November. This should be a more active pattern with a widely-changing weather forecast from day-to-day.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will be possible in the middle of next week and a system is likely to move through the country for late next week and weekend. Precipitation is likely to be limited with each system. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for much of next week, despite all the systems involved. Models may change significantly for next week though because of all the activity.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...98 AT 2 MILES WEST OF PALA, CA AND 6 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GLAMIS, CA

LOW THU...10 AT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAND LAKE, CO AND 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CANYON VILLAGE, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...HARRISBURG, PA 2.04 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East, a ridge in eastern Canada, and another ridge in the West. A disturbance passing through the gap between the ridges will move down into the Southeast this weekend. The western ridge will become the dominant one this weekend and another trough will move through Canada north of it. The ridge will have a tendency to spread eastward next week, but another disturbance will disrupt it as it moves through the U.S. later next week and weekend. Many more disturbances are lining up to either move over or through the ridge going into mid-November. This should be a more active pattern with a widely-changing weather forecast from day-to-day.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will be possible in the middle of next week and a system is likely to move through the country for late next week and weekend. Precipitation is likely to be limited with each system. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for much of next week, despite all the systems involved. Models may change significantly for next week though because of all the activity.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several little systems and fronts will move across the region during the first week of November, though precipitation looks rather light. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but the forecast is trending mostly above normal.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent heavy rain has helped with some of the drought that had been spreading through the region, and is filling soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. The region will trend drier for at least early November though, helping with fieldwork.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system curled around the region this week with scattered showers. Some isolated showers may develop Friday and Saturday and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers in early November that should create some variable conditions. Precipitation will generally be light, but may disrupt harvest and other fieldwork in some areas.

Temperatures should be somewhat variable with all the systems moving through.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Moderate to heavy rain that fell earlier this week is helping to reduce drought in the region. The forecast for Mississippi River water levels has improved since earlier this week, bringing about a period of somewhat higher levels for early November. The area will trend drier again going into November though, meaning the burst of higher water levels will be temporary.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front has moved into central Brazil and is restarting showers after a week of dryness. Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread heavy rainfall across the country.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It had been much cooler in the country this week, but any areas of frost were very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage. Systems continue to push through the country going into early November, bringing through scattered showers that have kept soil moisture high for planting and early growth of corn. However, this also brings through cooler temperatures that will keep growth slow. Winter wheat prospects are high this year because of all the rainfall, though that may be causing more disease pressure, as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): The continent has seen many waves of showers over the last couple of weeks, and more will move through into next week, being very favorable for winter wheat establishment. The rain may have led to some significant delays in fieldwork, though.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Another round of showers will move through Friday and Saturday, as rainfall over the last ten days or so has helped to build soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. Another burst of showers will move through the region next week, but is forecast to be light. Temperatures are forecast to stay warmer for a while and hold off dormancy, which typically starts to occur for northern areas in early November. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through eastern Australia earlier this week and again on Thursday, providing some limited benefit to a few dry spots. A system moving through this weekend has increasing showers forecast for eastern areas, but will still be scattered. Though some of the recent rainfall has been favorable, it has been spotty and hasn't hit all areas that have been dry. A few more systems are forecast next week and beyond, but with uncertain precipitation coverage. Conditions may have improved for filling winter wheat and canola, but are still mixed. The coming rain this weekend should be more favorable.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness though, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers east. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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