Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain moving out of the U.S. and being replaced by clippers in early November, improvements to the water levels on the Mississippi River, and showers filling back in across central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

HEAVY SHOWERS EXITING MIDWEST, BEING REPLACED BY ISOLATED RAINS

A system is curling around the eastern portions of the Midwest for Thursday with scattered showers. This is after bringing some moderate to heavy rainfall to western areas on Tuesday and southern areas on Wednesday. Some isolated showers may develop Friday and Saturday, and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers going into early November that should create some variable conditions. Precipitation will generally be light, but may disrupt harvest and other fieldwork in some areas. Temperatures should be somewhat variable with all the systems moving through.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYING OUT IN THE COLD AIR

Recent heavy rain has helped with some of the drought that had been spreading through the Central and Southern Plains, and has filled soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. The region will trend drier going into November, though, giving those with fieldwork to do some opportunity in which to do so. Frosty morning temperatures continue into the weekend as well.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS DESPITE ACTIVE CLIPPER PATTERN

The Northern Plains will be dealing with several little systems and fronts moving across the region through the first week of November, though precipitation looks rather light. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but the forecast is trending above normal starting this weekend.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS WATER LEVELS IMPROVING

Moderate to heavy rain that fell earlier this week in the Delta and Ohio Valley is helping to reduce drought in the region. The forecast for Mississippi River water levels has improved since earlier this week, bringing about a period of somewhat higher levels for early November. The area will trend drier again going into November though, meaning the burst of higher water levels will be temporary.

HEAVY RAIN RETURNING TO CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front has moved into central Brazil and will restart showers after a week of dryness. Producers may be worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread rainfall across the country. Some areas of heavy rain are likely, which will help to significantly increase soil moisture.

COLD, BUT STILL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

It has been much cooler in Argentina this week, but any areas of frost would have been very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage. Systems continue to push through the country going into early November, bringing through scattered showers that have kept soil moisture high for planting and early growth of corn. However, this also brings through cooler temperatures that will keep growth slow. Winter wheat prospects are high this year because of all the rainfall, though that may be causing more disease pressure, as well.

HIGH SOIL MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF EUROPE

Europe has seen many waves of showers over the last couple of weeks, and more will move through into next week, being very favorable for winter wheat establishment. The rain may have led to some significant delays in fieldwork, though.

REDUCED DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Rainfall over the last week has been overall favorable for the Black Sea region to improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. Another round of showers will move through Friday and Saturday, but the region will trend drier afterward as systems are more likely to move across the north in early November. That should keep temperatures warmer for a while and hold off dormancy, which typically starts to occur for northern areas in early November. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through eastern Australia earlier this week, providing some limited benefit to a few dry spots. Showers will be tougher to find for the rest of the week, but a system moving through this weekend has increasing showers forecast for eastern areas. Though some of the recent rainfall has been favorable, it has been spotty and hasn't hit all areas that have been dry. Conditions may have improved for filling winter wheat and canola, but are still mixed. The coming rain this weekend should be more favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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