DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Southeast, a ridge in eastern Canada, and another trough in the Plains. The ridge will remain firm, forcing the Plains trough to move underneath it through the U.S. this week. A ridge is starting to develop behind it in the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Disturbances will pass through the gap between the ridges for early November, leading to clipper systems and possibly rapidly changing weather conditions.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper-like system will move from the U.S.-Canada border eastward this weekend into early next week, sending a front into the country. Another system will move through the country late next week and weekend. Temperatures will generally be warm in the Southwest and cool in the Southeast, but variable in between as systems move through.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...100 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX AND 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW MON...14 AT 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUN VALLEY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...WEST PALM BEACH, FL 3.53 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Southeast, a ridge in eastern Canada, and another trough in the Plains. The ridge will remain firm, forcing the Plains trough to move underneath it through the U.S. this week. A ridge is starting to develop behind it in the West. Disturbances will pass through the gap between the ridges for early November, leading to clipper systems and possibly rapidly changing weather conditions.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper-like system will move from the U.S.-Canada border eastward this weekend into early next week, sending a front into the country. Another system will move through the country late next week and weekend. Temperatures will generally be warm in the Southwest and cool in the Southeast, but variable in between as systems move through.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved through on Monday with scattered showers and the region will be in the cross-hairs for clipper systems of various strength going into early November. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but no significant threat of snow is in the forecast through next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought heavy rain to parts of the region over the weekend. And a front is moving through on Tuesday with areas of showers. That should help with some of the drought that has been spreading and fill soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. The region will trend drier going into November, though, giving those with fieldwork to do some opportunity in which to do so.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front and attached system will move through western areas on Tuesday, then curl around the southern and eastern portions of the region for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers, followed by a little burst of cooler air. Some additional showers may develop in that cooler air over the weekend and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers going into early November that should create some variable conditions. That may cause issues with harvest and other fieldwork in some areas.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A system went through over the weekend with areas of heavy rainfall. Another front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday with more scattered showers. The rainfall is not forecast to bring much benefit to the Mississippi River, but should improve the drought in the region. The area will trend drier again after the system passes on Wednesday.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into southern areas over the weekend with scattered showers and some heavy rain. The front will migrate into central Brazil over the next couple of days and restart showers after a week of dryness. Producers did not make as much progress on soybean planting last week as expected, which may be due to the dryness. Producers may be worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth, but another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread showers.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought some areas of heavy rain to the country late last week, filling in some areas that were a little dry. Some showers are forecast across the north for Tuesday and another front is forecast to bring through rainfall this weekend. It is much cooler in the country this week, but any areas of frost would be very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): More waves of showers are in the forecast this week. Another system is likely to bring widespread rain to western areas later this week and send more waves eastward this weekend into next week as well. All the rainfall may be making it difficult to complete fieldwork, but is favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Widespread rain swept through the region over the weekend and another system will bring more showers to some of the driest areas in eastern Ukraine and western Russia Tuesday. A few more showers will be possible there later this week. Though the rainfall is favorable for winter wheat, northern areas will start to go dormant in early November unless temperatures end up warmer than forecast. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through eastern Australia and some additional rainfall will be possible in northeast Australia this week as well. Showers will be tougher to find for the rest of the week, but a system moving through this weekend has increasing showers forecast.

Though some of the recent rainfall has been favorable, it has been spotty and hasn't hit all areas that have been dry. Conditions may have improved for filling winter wheat and canola, but are still mixed.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through central China over the weekend, but dryness last week was favorable to allow some wet areas to drain, aiding winter wheat and canola establishment. Though some cooler air has not been all that favorable there or in northeast China for harvest, weather conditions are still overall mostly favorable. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness though, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

East: Scattered showers south Tuesday-Wednesday, east Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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