DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Southeast, a ridge in eastern Canada, and another trough in the northwest. The ridge will remain firm, forcing the trough to move underneath it through the U.S. this week. A ridge will develop behind it in the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Disturbances will pass through the gap between the ridges for early November, leading to clipper systems and possibly rapidly changing weather conditions.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A broad clipper-like system will move through the Midwest with isolated showers this weekend. Another clipper system will move from the U.S.-Canada border eastward this weekend into early next week, sending a front through the country. Temperatures will generally be warm in the Southwest and cool in the Southeast, but variable in between as systems move through.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...98 AT BROWNSVILLE, TX AND EL CENTRO, CA

LOW SUN...16 AT 5 MILES EAST OF DAVIS, WV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...MEMPHIS, TN 2.21 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Southeast, a ridge in eastern Canada, and another trough in the northwest. The ridge will remain firm, forcing the trough to move underneath it through the U.S. this week. A ridge will develop behind it in the West. Disturbances will pass through the gap between the ridges for early November, leading to clipper systems and possibly rapidly changing weather conditions.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A broad clipper-like system will move through the Midwest with isolated showers this weekend. Another clipper system will move from the U.S.-Canada border eastward this weekend into early next week, sending a front through the country. Temperatures will generally be warm in the Southwest and cool in the Southeast, but variable in between as systems move through.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was quiet over the weekend.

However, a system will move through on Monday with scattered showers and the region will be in the cross-hairs for clipper systems of various strength going into early November. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but no significant threat of snow is in the forecast through next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought heavy rain to parts of the region over the weekend. That should help with some of the drought that has been spreading and fill soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. A front will move through Monday and Tuesday with some areas of showers, but the region should trend drier going into early November.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system skirted by the southern end of the region with some showers over the weekend. The Missouri Bootheel into far southern Illinois ended up with the heaviest rainfall amounts. A front and attached system will move through early this week with scattered showers for western and southern areas, followed by a little burst of cooler air. Some additional showers may develop in that cooler air over the weekend and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers going into early November that should cause some variable conditions. That may cause issues with harvest and other fieldwork.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A system went through over the weekend with areas of heavy rainfall. Another front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday with more scattered showers. The rainfall is not forecast to bring much benefit to the Mississippi River, but should improve the drought in the region.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into southern areas over the weekend with scattered showers and some heavy rain. The front will migrate into central Brazil this week and restart showers after a week of dryness. Producers did not make as much progress on soybean planting last week as expected, which may be due to the dryness. Producers may be worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth. Another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread showers.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought some areas of heavy rain to the country late last week, filling in some areas that were a little dry. Some showers are forecast early this week, but another front is forecast to bring through some widespread rainfall this weekend. It is much cooler in the country this week, but any areas of frost would be very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought widespread showers to the continent over the weekend and more showers are in the forecast for the front half of the week. Another system is likely to bring widespread rain to western areas later this week and additional waves may spring up this weekend into next week as well. All the rainfall may be making it difficult to complete fieldwork, but is favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Widespread rain swept through the region over the weekend and another system will bring more showers to some of the driest areas in eastern Ukraine and western Russia early this week. A few more showers will be possible there midweek. Though the rainfall is favorable for winter wheat, northern areas will start to go dormant in early November unless temperatures end up warmer than forecast. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through eastern Australia and some additional rainfall will be possible in northeast Australia this week as well. Showers will be tougher to find for the rest of the week.

Though some of the recent rainfall has been favorable, it has been spotty and hasn't hit all areas that have been dry. Conditions may have improved, but are still mixed.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through central China over the weekend, but dryness last week was favorable to allow some wet areas to drain, aiding winter wheat and canola establishment. Though some cooler air has not been all that favorable there or in northeast China for harvest, weather conditions are still overall mostly favorable. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness though, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Isolated showers far south Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday, east Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures below normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.