Under the Agridome

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The weather is changing across Southwestern Ontario. Gone are those glorious long days with bright sunshine and warmth. It has taken a bit of getting used to, but I've had rain on my farms almost every day this week. In any case, the good weather has led to some great harvest progress. As of Oct. 17, about 91% of Ontario soybeans have been harvested and about 2% of Ontario corn. I hope to dip into the corn as soon as it dries up.

In the meantime, we've had a little bit of a bull run on prices. December corn is up $0.18 a bushel during the last nine days, as of Thursday. Soybeans are up about $0.48 since the start of October. At first glance, it just doesn't add up with these prices gaining in the gut slot of harvest. However, in lieu of no USDA reports, future spreads as well as basis are giving us clues that this United States crop may not be as big as once advertised. As we go into November, we'll see if these markets run out of steam. As is, we'll take it in spades.

The market action in corn and soybeans is mildly surprising, but it is nothing compared to what's happened during the last few days in the beef market. As you all know, beef prices have been very high for an extended period of time. Of course, as most cattle producers will tell you, high prices are a good thing, but you have to buy the calves and stockers, too. It's a complex marketing environment and I will leave it up to the specialists to try to figure it out. However, cattle prices have been on the historical run.

This is not sitting well, of course, with our consumer friends who are equating the price of beef in grocery stores as extreme. That has got some of our politicians up in arms; President Donald Trump is the most vocal.

The following are partial quotes from President Trump taken from DTN's Chris Clayton's piece, "Trump's Plans for Cattle Markets," https://www.dtnpf.com/….

"The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don't understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States," Trump said on Truth Social on Wednesday. "If it weren't for me, they would be doing just as they've done for the past 20 years -- Terrible! It would be nice if they would understand that, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!"

Trump shortly followed up, "In addition to everything else, Tariffs on other Countries SAVED our Cattle Ranchers!"

Well, you can just imagine cattle groups and beef producers in the United States reacting negatively regarding those comments. There were also comments about importing beef from Argentina to bring prices down here. At the end of the day, such intervention into the beef market made for a couple long days for everybody.

That's just the world we live in now. I will let my American friends criticize Trump's beef musings if they so choose. On the contrary, though, I feel it's important to realize the reality of the situation. That is, we have a U.S. president who believes in his policy of tariffs and that in turn is really having a huge effect on the way we farm and where we live in Canada.

That was brought home in a speech given by Prime Minister Mark Carney Wednesday night in Ottawa. In his speech, he talked about the fall budget coming Nov. 4, where there will be a pledge to double exports to non-U.S. markets during the next decade. He went on to tell young people in the crowd the government will need people to sacrifice because of the unprecedented pressures put on the Canadian economy from U.S. trade policies.

In other words, it would seem things aren't going to get better very soon on the Canadian economic front. One casualty in all of this is the value of the Canadian dollar which remains at a four-month low, closing today at 0.7158 U.S. Thankfully, that is adding a stimulus to Ontario and Quebec cash grain prices, which makes it better for farmers. Will the Canadian dollar go lower? Well, that depends, and it will especially depend on how our U.S. and Canada trade arrangement eventually ends up.

The challenge looking ahead for Canadian farmers will be to stay adaptive in an increasingly unpredictable world. We can't control who wins elections or what tariff policy gets posted on social media at 3 a.m., but we can control how we respond to it. Our job, as always, is to manage the risk, capture the opportunity, and keep the wheels turning on our farms no matter what Washington or Ottawa throws at us.

As the days get shorter and the combines roll toward the finish line, that's never been truer. I've seen some of this before. At the end of the day, somehow Canadian agriculture will need to find some new ways to thrive.

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The views expressed are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

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