DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with another moving into the Southern Plains.

These will continue to move east. A stronger trough in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West this weekend and run into a ridge that is building in Canada next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will drift underneath the ridge into the Southeast where it will combine with the Southern Plains trough and deepen. Another ridge will develop in the West to replace it. This pattern of a western ridge and eastern trough is generally expected to continue for early November.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will move through eastern areas in the middle of next week, bringing temperatures down, especially for the Southeast. Another system may move across the Canadian Prairies in the middle of next week pushing another front that may reinforce those cooler temperatures for later next week and weekend.

Temperatures should rise sharply in the West during the middle of the week and could spread into the Plains for next weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...101 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...17 AT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HARRISON, NE

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...ERIE, PA 2.76 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with another moving into the Southern Plains.

These will continue to move east. A stronger trough in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West this weekend and run into a ridge that is building in Canada next week. This will drift underneath it into the Southeast where it will combine with the Southern Plains trough. Another ridge will develop in the West to replace it. This pattern of a western ridge and eastern trough is generally expected to continue for early November.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will move through eastern areas in the middle of next week, bringing temperatures down, especially for the Southeast. Another system may move across the Canadian Prairies in the middle of next week pushing another front that may reinforce those cooler temperatures for later next week and weekend.

Temperatures should rise sharply in the West during the middle of the week and could spread into the Plains for next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It remains quiet for another couple of days after recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. A system will move back in with more showers on Sunday and Monday, though the prospect for showers is uncertain. Systems moving through the Canadian Prairies could bring some showers to the region next week as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A compact system will continue with showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and may produce some areas of heavy rain and potential severe weather, especially south. That should be beneficial to winter wheat establishment. Largely drier weather after that for next week should promote harvest.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cooler air in the region will produce areas of frost for yet another morning. Southern areas will get some showers through the weekend. A front should move through during the middle of next week with more chances for rain and another drop in temperature. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress in a few areas as well.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Recent rainfall has helped the drought, but has provided very little benefit to the water levels on the Mississippi River. Another system will move through this weekend with some areas of heavier rain. Some benefit will occur for the drought and rivers, but low water levels continue to plague shipping up and down the Mississippi until we see a significant change in the weather pattern.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cooler and drier weather that has been occurring in central Brazil is unusual for this time of year. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil in the middle of next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch in central Brazil is only slightly concerning as producers will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is spreading showers through the country on Friday and has already produced some areas of heavy rain in the south. The front will move north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn.

Soybean planting will begin in another week or so and increase in November.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to send waves of showers across the continent into next week. The rainfall this week has not been consistent, but it has been fairly widespread. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but showers may hamper the remaining corn harvest and other fieldwork.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness has been a concern, especially in southwestern Russia. However, a front comes that through from one of the European systems on Friday and more waves of showers into next week will bring through more widespread and moderate to heavy rainfall that the region needs.

It is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks, but the reduction in drought will be helpful regardless. The region still needs an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The trend has been for building dryness over the last few weeks. A system went through with limited showers already this week and another will move through this weekend with more showers. But the rain may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are still mixed across the country.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy rain moved through central China last week, which was followed by a burst of cold air and dryness over the weekend. With drier conditions for central and northeast China, that should be beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment in the central, and corn and soybean harvest in the northeast. Some showers will be possible next week, but are forecast to be light.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers south Friday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday, below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers south Sunday-Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.