DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with another in the Southwest. These will continue to move east. A stronger trough in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West this weekend and get trapped in the U.S. below a ridge that builds in Canada next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will drift to the East while another ridge develops in the West to replace it. This pattern of a western ridge and eastern trough is generally expected to continue for early November.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement this week, but have some key differences on the system for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more consistent.

A system should move through the eastern half of the country early-mid next week with scattered showers and a drop in temperature. Temperatures should rise sharply in the West during the middle of the week and could spread into the Plains for late next week and weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...97 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX AND 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTO, TX

LOW WED...13 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...BUFFALO, NY 2.10 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with another in the Southwest. These will continue to move east. A stronger trough in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West this weekend and get trapped in the U.S. below a ridge that builds in Canada next week. This will drift to the East while another ridge develops in the West to replace it. This pattern of a western ridge and eastern trough is generally expected to continue for early November.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement this week, but have some key differences on the system for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more consistent.

A system should move through the eastern half of the country early-mid next week with scattered showers and a drop in temperature. Temperatures should rise sharply in the West during the middle of the week and could spread into the Plains for late next week and weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few quiet days are forecast in the region after recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. A system will move back in with more showers on Sunday or Monday, though the prospect for showers is uncertain and drier weather is favored afterward for a bit.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): The region has been drier for the last few days, allowing for some fieldwork to be done. But a compact system will move into the region for Thursday through the weekend with scattered showers and perhaps some heavy rain. That should be beneficial to winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues across the Great Lakes with isolated showers on Thursday. Cooler air moving into the region will produce areas of frost for the next couple of mornings. Southern areas will get some showers Friday through the weekend. A front should move through during the middle of next week with more chances for rain and another drop in temperature. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress in a few areas as well.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Recent rainfall has helped the drought, but has provided very little benefit to the water levels on the Mississippi River. Another system will move through this weekend with showers and another early next week could as well. Some limited benefit will occur for the drought and rivers, but low water levels continue to plague shipping up and down the river until we see a significant change in the weather pattern.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cooler and drier weather will continue for the next few days. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil in the middle of next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch in central Brazil is only slightly concerning as producers there will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another front will spread showers through the country for the rest of the week. The front will clear north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or so and increase in November.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to send waves of showers across the continent into next week. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but showers may hamper the ongoing corn harvest and other fieldwork.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness continues to be a concern, especially in southwestern Russia. However, a front comes that through from one of the European systems on Friday will bring through more widespread and moderate to heavy rainfall that the region needs. It is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks, but the reduction in drought will be helpful regardless. The region still needs an active winter to have good wheat prospects.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The trend has been for building dryness over the last few weeks. A system went through with limited showers already this week and another will move through this weekend with more showers. But the rain may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are still mixed across the country.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy rain moved through central China last week, which was followed by a burst of cold air over the weekend. With drier conditions for central and northeast China, that should be beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment in the central, and corn and soybean harvest in the northeast. Some showers will be possible next week, but are forecast to be light.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers south Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures below normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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