DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with another off the California coast. These will continue to move east this week for the rest of the week. A stronger trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West this weekend and get trapped in the U.S. below a ridge that builds in Canada next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will drift to the east while another ridge develops in the West to replace it. This pattern of a western ridge and eastern trough is generally expected to continue for early November.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement this week, but have some key differences on the system for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more consistent.

A system should move through the eastern half of the country early-mid next week with scattered showers and a drop in temperature. Temperatures should rise sharply in the West during the middle of the week and could spread into the Plains for late next week and weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...98 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX, AND 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINN, TX

LOW TUE...11 AT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAND LAKE, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...BURLINGTON, VT 1.24 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with another off the California coast. These will continue to move east for the rest of the week. A stronger trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West this weekend and get trapped in the U.S. below a ridge that builds in Canada next week. This will drift to the East while another ridge develops in the West to replace it.

This pattern of a western ridge and eastern trough is generally expected to continue for early November.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement this week, but have some key differences on the system for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more consistent.

A system should move through the eastern half of the country early-mid next week with scattered showers and a drop in temperature. Temperatures should rise sharply in the West during the middle of the week and could spread into the Plains for late next week and weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few quiet days are forecast in the region after recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. A system will move back in with more showers on Sunday or Monday, though the prospect for showers is uncertain and drier weather is favored afterward for a bit.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): The region has been drier for the last few days, allowing for some fieldwork to be done. But a compact system will move into the region Thursday through the weekend with scattered showers and perhaps some heavy rain. That should be beneficial to winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues across the Great Lakes with isolated showers through Thursday. It has produced some strong winds as well. Cooler weather moving into the region will produce areas of frost for the next couple of mornings. Southern areas may get some showers Friday into the weekend. A stronger system may develop for early next week that could bring rain, strong winds, and another drop in temperature. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress in a few areas as well.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Rainfall over the weekend in the Delta and Midwest has helped the drought, but has provided very little benefit to the water levels on the Mississippi River. Another system will move through this weekend with showers and another early next week could as well. Some limited benefit will occur for the drought and rivers, but low water levels continue to plague shipping up and down the river until we see a significant change in the weather pattern.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front has essentially cleared the country. Cooler and drier weather will keep most areas dry for the rest of the week. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil in the middle of next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch is only slightly concerning as producers there will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another front will spread showers through the country for the rest of the week. The front will clear north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or so and increase in November. Though rainfall this week should be favorable, the frequency of fronts is starting to slow down a bit, which may need to be monitored.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system that moved into western areas this weekend continues to send waves of showers across the continent throughout the week and into next week as well. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but showers may hamper the ongoing corn harvest.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought scattered showers to the region over the weekend, but not a lot of heavy rain like the region would prefer. Dryness continues to be a concern, especially in southwestern Russia. Showers will be limited this week until a front comes through from one of the European systems on Friday. This front and systems that follow behind it are more likely to bring about better rainfall coverage and amounts, though it is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The trend has been for building dryness over the last few weeks. A system went through with limited showers already this week and another will move through this weekend with more showers. But the rain may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are mixed across the country for now.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy rain moved through central China last week, which was followed by a burst of cold air over the weekend. With drier conditions for central and northeast China, that should be beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment in the central, and corn and soybean harvest in the northeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday-Saturday.

Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers northwest Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday.

Isolated showers south Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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