Ag Weather Forum

Drier weather that started in the Lower Mississippi River Valley at the end of July spread through much of the Ohio and Lower Missouri River basins throughout August and September. The resulting expansion of drought has led to very low water levels on local rivers and the Mississippi River in particular.

Despite some rounds of rain in recent weeks, the momentum has been for lowering water levels that have become restrictive to shipping. The widespread drought may continue for the next couple of months, which would make those restrictions long-lasting. This is the fourth-straight fall season in which restrictions have been implemented on the Lower Mississippi River.

The dry conditions in August and September also came with above-normal temperatures. With stress increasing for crops and other plant life in the region, drought quickly increased. As of Oct. 14, drought has spread from Texas up through Michigan and in blotchy fashion eastward throughout the country. Though Kentucky was the hardest hit by dryness in August and September, a couple of heavy rainfall events in October have eased drought there.

Water levels on the Tennessee River have been lower, but not nearly as bad as some of the other major rivers that feed into the Mississippi like the Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois, all of which have had significant drought plaguing their basins.

All of that drought has caught up to the Mississippi, and water levels continue to fall all along the river's path. At St. Louis, the water level of minus 1.25 feet is closing in on the low threshold of minus 3.2 feet. At Cairo and points southward, water levels on the Mississippi have already reached the low threshold all the way to the gauge in Greenville, Mississippi. With less water coming in from farther north, it is only a matter of time before those lower water levels make it down to the Gulf.

These water levels are falling despite some good rainfall in recent weeks. A burst of 2-5 inches of rain fell right over the lower Ohio River in early October. And a blanket of 1-2 inches of rain fell over much of the drought areas this past weekend, Oct. 18-19.

But despite that, the drought continues. Small bumps upward in water levels have delayed the downward trend but have not been heavy enough over a wide enough area to reverse it. Much of this rainfall has soaked into the drought-stricken dry soils and has not run off into the river systems, leading to a much slower and prolonged release of water into the Mississippi.

If more frequent events do not occur quickly, the trend for lower water levels will continue to plague the area. DTN Basis Analyst Mary Kennedy noted, "As river levels continue to fall, shippers will be required to load less grain in barges as draft restrictions come into play again as the shallow river can cause barges to ground."

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, USACE, is in the process of mitigating the effects of these low water levels, but that can cause issues and delays on its own. Kennedy said that in addition to a sill that is being constructed at the mouth of the Mississippi to reduce the intrusion of salt water up the river, "the USACE will also send dredges to the troubled spots to help prevent groundings and that can cause a temporary river closure. Currently, the Dredge Jadwin started dredging Oct. 20 at MM 590, right above Rosedale, where the river is at minus 7.62 feet below zero gauge. American Commercial Barge Line noted on their website that a full closure is in place for 48 hours. Upriver from there at Memphis, the water level is at minus 8.52 feet. It is expected that more dredges will head to the lowest spots in the Lower Mississippi River where shoaling is occurring. Besides the Lower Mississippi River, water levels on the Ohio River at Cairo have fallen below the low water stage of 10 feet and dredges will likely head there as well."

There is some optimism about more frequent storm systems here at the end of October and beginning of November. One storm in particular is forecast to go across the Southern Plains on Oct. 23-24, but models are not sure how much rain will fall east of there. Some benefit to drought and the Arkansas river is to be expected, but runoff into other Mississippi River tributaries is unknown.

A more potent storm is forecast for early next week, Oct. 27-29. There is good reason to believe this system will produce widespread precipitation as well. But models again are unsure how this will develop or how much coverage of heavy precipitation we will see. A similar active pattern could continue for at least the front half of November, but the atmospheric setup is promoting more clipper-like systems that produce streaks of moderate rain as opposed to the large fall systems that produce widespread shields of heavy rain.

We are on the edge of La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, though, as noted here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…. That pattern tends to favor a storm track from Texas through the Ohio Valley, which would improve drought conditions and water levels on the Mississippi River. But that usually doesn't take shape until winter, another six weeks away. Water levels may continue to be low until then.

Read more about the ways the USACE is helping to address the low water issues from DTN Basis Analyst Mary Kennedy here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast for free from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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