DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Central with another in western Canada and another off the California coast. These will easily move east this week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A stronger trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West this weekend and get trapped in the U.S. below a ridge in Canada next week.

This will drift to the East for late next week while another ridge develops in the West to replace it. This pattern is generally expected to continue for early November.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement this week, but have diverged for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more consistent.

A system should move into the middle of the country early next week and will quickly wrap up, getting stuck for a few days, but generally moving eastward.

Temperatures should fall as this system moves in, but will rise sharply in the West during the middle of the week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...103 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...16 AT 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, UT AND 5 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HARTSEL, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...CONCORD, NH AND PORTLAND, ME 1.24 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Central with another in western Canada and another off the California coast. These will easily move east this week. A stronger trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West this weekend and get trapped in the U.S. below a ridge in Canada next week. This will drift to the East for late next week while another ridge develops in the West to replace it. This pattern is generally expected to continue for early November.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement this week, but have diverged for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more consistent.

A system should move into the middle of the country early next week and will quickly wrap up, getting stuck for a few days, but generally moving eastward.

Temperatures should fall as this system moves in, but will rise sharply in the West during the middle of the week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell are exiting to the east early Tuesday while some breezy winds hang on in the Dakotas. Recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. Drier weather later this week should be more beneficial. A system will move back in with more showers on Sunday or Monday, leaving the window a bit short.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): The region should be drier for the next couple of days, allowing for some fieldwork to be done. But a compact system is forecast to move into the region Thursday through Saturday with perhaps some heavy rain. That should be beneficial to winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues across the north with isolated showers through maybe Thursday. It is producing some strong winds as well. Southern areas may get some showers later this week and weekend.

A stronger and more wrapped up system is forecast for next week that could bring several days of rain and strong winds. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front moved through with widespread moderate to heavy rain not only in the Delta region, but also in the Midwest, which will help to boost water levels on the Mississippi River. However, the boost is not forecast to be all that impressive or last long with low water levels currently causing issues for transportation.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved through the bulk of the country with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over the weekend. The front is moving north Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler and drier weather behind this front will keep most areas dry for much of the week. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil early next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch is only slightly concerning as producers there will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another front will return to southern areas late Tuesday and only slowly move north and spread showers through the country the rest of the week. The front will clear north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or two and increase in November. Though rainfall this week should be favorable, the frequency of fronts is starting to slow down a bit, which may need to be monitored.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system that moved into western areas this weekend is sending waves of showers across the continent throughout the week and into next week as well. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but showers may hamper the ongoing corn harvest.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought scattered showers to the region over the weekend, but not a lot of heavy rain like the region would prefer.

Dryness continues to be a concern, especially in southwestern Russia. Showers will be limited this week until a front comes through from one of the European systems on Friday. This front and systems that follow behind it are more likely to bring about better rainfall coverage and amounts, though it is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The trend has been for building dryness over the last few weeks. A couple of systems will move through this week with scattered showers. But they may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are mixed across the country for now.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy rain moved through central China last week, which was followed by a burst of cold air over the weekend.

However, frosts have not been an issue just yet. With drier conditions for central and northeast China, that should be beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment in the central, and corn and soybean harvest in the northeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

East: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers northwest Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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