DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with another moving into the Plains. These will easily move east this week. Another trough will move across the south late this week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A stronger trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West this weekend and get trapped in the U.S. below a ridge across Canada next week.

This will drift to the East for late next week while another ridge develops in the West to replace it.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should move into the middle of the country early next week and will quickly wrap up, getting stuck for a few days. The tendency should be for showers to migrate to the east by later next week. Temperatures should fall as this system moves in.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...101 AT 2 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX

LOW SUN...17 AT DANIEL, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...MOBILE, AL 1.99 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with another moving into the Plains. These will easily move east this week. Another trough will move across the south late this week and weekend. A stronger trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West this weekend and get trapped in the U.S. below a ridge across Canada next week. This will drift to the East for late next week while another ridge develops in the West to replace it.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should move into the middle of the country early next week and will quickly wrap up, getting stuck for a few days. The tendency should be for showers to migrate to the east by later next week. Temperatures should fall as this system moves in.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell over the weekend as one system left and another moved in. Showers should last into Tuesday before leaving. Recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. Drier weather later this week should be more beneficial.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain to the southeast on Friday and Saturday. Though a system is moving through to the north on Monday, the region should be drier for the next few days. But a compact system is forecast to move into the region Thursday and Friday with perhaps some heavy rain. Producers should be able to pick up on fieldwork this week, and winter wheat producers should find some beneficial rain to finish out the week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through over the weekend and brought widespread areas of moderate to heavy rain. Another little system will move through the front half of the week with more isolated and lighter showers. Southern areas may get some showers later this week as well. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front moved through with widespread moderate to heavy rain not only in the Delta region, but also in the Midwest, which will help to boost water levels on the Mississippi River. However, the boost is not forecast to be all that impressive or last long with low water levels currently causing issues for transportation.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved through the bulk of the country with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over the weekend. The front is forecast to move north Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler and drier weather behind this front will keep areas dry for much of the week. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend its migration into central Brazil early next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch is only slightly concerning as producers there will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved north out of the country this weekend. Cool, dry air filled in behind it, but frosts were generally not observed. Another front will return to southern areas late Tuesday and only slowly move north and spread showers through the country the rest of the week. The front will clear north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or two and increase in November. Though rainfall this week should be favorable, the frequency of fronts is starting to slow down a bit, which may need to be monitored.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved into western areas on Sunday and will send waves of showers eastward through the continent throughout the week. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but may hamper the ongoing corn harvest.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought scattered showers to the region over the weekend, but not a lot of heavy rain like the region would prefer with how dry it is, especially in southwestern Russia. Showers will be limited this week until a front comes through from one of the European systems on Friday. This front and systems that follow behind it are more likely to bring about better rainfall coverage and amounts, though it is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Isolated showers fell in some parts of Australia this weekend, but the trend has been for building dryness over the last few weeks. A couple of systems will move through this week with scattered showers. But they may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are mixed across the country for now.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy rain moved through central China last week, which was followed by a burst of cold air over the weekend. However, frosts have not been an issue just yet. With drier conditions for central and northeast China, that should be beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment in the central, and corn and soybean harvest in the northeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Friday.

East: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers southeast. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday, north Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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