DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West and Plains with a ridge in the East. The trough will finally move eastward this weekend, pushing the ridge off the East Coast.

At the same time, another trough will move into the West, sliding eastward next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will be replaced by a transient ridge for later next week and weekend as another strong trough approaches the West.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should move through the U.S. early-to-mid next week with some showers likely across the north. Temperatures should fall behind that system while western areas see temperatures rise. Eventually those warmer temperatures will spread eastward later next week and weekend. Yet another system may move into the West next weekend, then through the U.S. the following week as the relatively active pattern continues.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...99 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...13 AT 5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SILVES, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...JUNEAU, AK 0.95 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West and Plains with a ridge in the East. The trough will finally move eastward this weekend, pushing the ridge off the East Coast.

At the same time, another trough will move into the West, sliding eastward next week. That will be replaced by a transient ridge for later next week and weekend as another strong trough approaches the West.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should move through the U.S. early-to-mid next week with some showers likely across the north. Temperatures should fall behind that system while western areas see temperatures rise. Eventually those warmer temperatures will spread eastward later next week and weekend. Yet another system may move into the West next weekend, then through the U.S. the following week as the relatively active pattern continues.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across the region on Friday as a system moves through. Another system is likely to move through Sunday and Monday with some showers as well. Temperatures will be quite variable as the systems move through. All of the recent and forecast precipitation is not favorable for harvest, and progress should be slower.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system moving through the Northern Plains will push a cold front across the region through Saturday with variable showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too. Only limited areas of beneficial rainfall are forecast for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has been producing showers in the northwest for much of the week. A system in the Northern Plains will push a front eastward through the region this weekend. That may cause some stronger thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain. The rainfall may stall harvest progress in some areas for a little while. Another system will move through the region early next week, but with more limited showers that may target Michigan more than other areas.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dry weather since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the region and water levels on the Lower Mississippi River are declining. Some showers moving through on Saturday and farther north may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change in the momentum for lower water levels.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move through southern areas through Saturday, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall that continues to be favorable for that region. The front will move into central Brazil this weekend with widespread rainfall, but may have a tendency to move too far north next week. If it does, it would disrupt the monsoon flow from the north and leave much of Brazil drier until the next front comes through next weekend into the following week. More dry weather would be unfavorable for planting and establishment of soybeans. Areas across the south have good soil moisture for early growth.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though it has been a little drier across the south and central, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. A front is bringing showers to northern areas on Friday.

Southern areas may have to wait until mid- or most likely later next week for rain to return. Soybean planting will get started in a couple of weeks. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions so far are favorable. Fronts and systems do seem to be heading toward a downtrend in frequency, which may need to be monitored over the next few weeks.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers have been occurring over eastern Europe this week. Drier conditions in the northwest have been a little concerning for winter wheat establishment, but a system is forecast to move through this weekend into next week, likely with heavy rain. Showers should work south and east throughout next week as well as a more stormy weather pattern takes hold for the rest of October.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Only isolated showers have been occurring this week and drought is still a major problem for the region, specifically in western Russia. Showers may be more scattered and beneficial this weekend as a system moves through, but this region needs a lot more rain for winter wheat establishment. Only limited showers are forecast for next week, but may pick up next weekend and be more beneficial. It is getting late for that to be of benefit though as some northern areas are likely to see more frequent frosts and head into dormancy in November.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Much of Australia has been drier over the last couple of weeks, somewhat concerning for winter wheat and canola in some areas of the country. Some areas still have good soil moisture though. Only limited showers are forecast to move through the country for the next week, and drier areas are expanding if a few more systems fail to develop next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rain has been consistent in central China for the last several weeks, but has gotten heavy, which may be causing some flooding and overall poor conditions for planting and establishment of winter wheat and canola. Drier weather in the northeast has been more favorable for corn and soybean harvest. Scattered showers will continue into Friday before colder air descends through the country. That may produce some frosts for limited spots in central China. That would not be hazardous for too many spots, but may have some impact before the real start to winter occurs. The colder weather may impact harvest across the northeast as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Isolated shower Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday, north Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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