Commodities Market Impact Weather

Up-and-Down Mid-October Pattern

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system and front moving through the U.S. in an up-and-down pattern, and good weather across most of South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A stalled front in the Midwest has a weakening system moving north of it across the Great Lakes with showers on Wednesday. Another system will move north into Canada on Thursday, pushing the front eastward this weekend. That may cause some stronger thunderstorms to develop across the east. Overall, showers may be limiting harvest in the Northwest, but most areas should have good weather to continue work. Showers this weekend may push plans back a bit for some though.

SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front that has stalled in the Central and Southern Plains will be active as another system moves along it and then pushes the front eastward on Saturday. Showers will be much more consistent farther north, though. Periods of precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too. Only limited areas of beneficial rainfall are forecast for winter wheat.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING WET NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

Scattered showers continue across the Northern Plains through Friday as a system moves along a front that has stalled off to the south. All of the recent and forecast precipitation are not favorable for harvest this week, and progress should be slower.

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MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS FALLING AGAIN, MAY GET BOOST THIS WEEKEND

Dry weather in the Delta since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the region. Though the Lower Mississippi River got a small boost in water levels from rain that fell in the Ohio Valley last week, water levels are declining again. Drier conditions this week will not be helpful. Some showers moving through on Saturday may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change.

WET SEASON SHOWERS ACTIVE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Showers are now scattered in central Brazil as the wet season rainfall is underway. That may take some time to fill in areas that were very dry over the last three weeks, but is overall favorable for soybean planting and establishment. Consistent fronts moving north from Argentina are providing good moisture for corn and soybean establishment in the south.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA, BUT GOOD SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES

Though it has been a little drier across southern and central Argentina, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. Another front should bring showers to northern areas for Thursday and Friday. Southern areas may have to wait until later next week for rain to return. Soybean planting will get started in a couple of weeks. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions so far are favorable.

BIGGER SYSTEM HEADING FOR EUROPE THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers continue over eastern Europe for the next few days. Drier conditions in the Northwest are a little concerning for winter wheat establishment, though not concerning enough as a system is forecast to move through these areas this weekend into next week, likely with heavy rain. Showers should work south and east throughout next week as well.

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA MAY BECOME SCATTERED THIS WEEKEND

Only isolated showers have been occurring in the Black Sea region this week and drought is still a major problem for the region, specifically in western Russia. Showers may be more scattered and beneficial this weekend as a system moves through, but this region needs a lot more rain for winter wheat establishment.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Much of Australia has been drier over the last couple of weeks, somewhat concerning for winter wheat and canola in some areas of the country. Some areas still have good soil moisture though, and the dryness has not been all that concerning. Only limited showers are forecast to move through the country for the next week, and drier areas are expanding if a few more systems fail to develop.

RAIN MAY BE TOO HEAVY IN CENTRAL CHINA

Rain has been consistent in central China for the last several weeks. Although this had been favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment, rainfall has been a little too high in some areas and may be causing some flooding. Drier weather in the northeast has been more favorable for corn and soybean harvest. Scattered showers will continue this week before colder air descends through the country. That may produce some frosts for limited spots in central China. That would not be hazardous for too many spots, but may have some impact before the real start to winter occurs. The colder weather may impact harvest across the Northeast as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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John Baranick