DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West with a ridge in the Central and East. The trough is attempting to move eastward throughout the week but won't succeed until this weekend, pushing the ridge off the East Coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Also this weekend, another trough will move into the West, sliding eastward next week. That will be replaced by a transient ridge for later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement, but disagree on a system moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Milder temperatures should be found in the East early next week behind a front while the Central sees temperatures rising ahead of the next system. That system should move through the U.S. next week, though its development is uncertain. Its front may be more active across the South later next week.

Temperatures should fall behind that front again while western areas see temperatures rise as we continue to see an up-and-down temperature pattern with the active weather.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...97 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...15 AT 19 MILES EAST OF SWAN LAKE, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...SACRAMENTO, CA 1.37 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West with a ridge in the Central and East. The trough is attempting to move eastward throughout the week but won't succeed until this weekend, pushing the ridge off the East Coast. At the same time, another trough will move into the West, sliding eastward next week. That will be replaced by a transient ridge for later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement, but disagree on a system moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Milder temperatures should be found in the East early next week behind a front while the Central sees temperatures rising ahead of the next system. That system should move through the U.S. next week, though its development is uncertain. Its front may be more active across the South later next week.

Temperatures should fall behind that front again while western areas see temperatures rise as we continue to see an up-and-down temperature pattern with the active weather.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across the region through Friday as a system moves along a front that has stalled off to the south. All of the recent and forecast precipitation is not favorable for harvest this week, and progress should be slower.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front that has stalled in the region will be active as another system moves along it and pushes it eastward on Saturday. Showers will be much more consistent farther north, though. Periods of precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too.

Only limited areas of beneficial rainfall are forecast for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front in the region has a weakening system moving north of it across the Great Lakes with showers on Wednesday. Another system will move north into Canada on Thursday, pushing the front eastward this weekend. That may cause some stronger thunderstorms to develop across the east. Overall, showers may be limiting harvest in the northwest, but most areas should have good weather to continue work. Showers this weekend may push plans back a bit for some though.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dry weather since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the region. Though the Lower Mississippi River got a small boost in water levels from rain that fell in the Ohio Valley last week, water levels are declining again. Drier conditions this week will not be helpful. Some showers moving through on Saturday may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers are now scattered in central Brazil as the wet season rainfall is underway. That may take some time to fill in areas that were very dry over the last three weeks, but is overall favorable for soybean planting and establishment. Consistent fronts moving north from Argentina are providing good moisture for corn and soybean establishment in the south.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though it has been a little drier across the south and central, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. Another front should bring showers to northern areas for Thursday and Friday. Southern areas may have to wait until later next week for rain to return. Soybean planting will get started in a couple of weeks. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions so far are favorable.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers continue over eastern Europe for the next few days. Drier conditions in the northwest are a little concerning for winter wheat establishment, though not concerning enough as a system is forecast to move through these areas this weekend into next week, likely with heavy rain. Showers should work south and east throughout next week as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Only isolated showers have been occurring this week and drought is still a major problem for the region, specifically in western Russia. Showers may be more scattered and beneficial this weekend as a system moves through, but this region needs a lot more rain for winter wheat establishment.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Much of Australia has been drier over the last couple of weeks, somewhat concerning for winter wheat and canola in some areas of the country. Some areas still have good soil moisture though, and the dryness has not been all that concerning. Only limited showers are forecast to move through the country for the next week, and drier areas are expanding if a few more systems fail to develop.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rain has been consistent in central China for the last several weeks. Although this had been favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment, rainfall has been a little too high in some areas and may be causing some flooding. Drier weather in the northeast has been more favorable for corn and soybean harvest. Scattered showers will continue this week before colder air descends through the country. That may produce some frosts for limited spots in central China. That would not be hazardous for too many spots, but may have some impact before the real start to winter occurs.

The colder weather may impact harvest across the northeast as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated showers through Friday, mostly north. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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