Ag Weather Forum

It has generally been a quiet and warm first half of the fall season. But fall is a season of change and that usually means some big-time storm systems, wild swings in temperature, and areas of heavy precipitation, sometimes in the form of snow. The weather pattern for at least the next two weeks tends to favor more of that variability as we see the atmosphere changing around quite a bit.

Though some areas in the Northern Plains, central United States, and around the Ohio River have seen some heavy precipitation during the last couple of weeks, warm and dry have been more characteristic of the weather pattern east of the Rockies so far in October. The Western U.S. has been much more active, and we have seen multiple systems and remnants to tropical systems moving through to give above-normal precipitation and largely below-normal temperatures as well.

This has been driven by an upper-level weather pattern that has tried to remain stagnant during the last few weeks. Some occasional changes to that have happened, but the pattern has been keen to return to this state.

However, the weather pattern is changing and we should see some more dramatic shifts to the weather. The changes have already started to develop. A large upper-level trough in the West is doing its best to shift eastward this week, but it's having trouble pushing the large ridge out of the Central and Eastern U.S.

It will still try, and one impulse is already leading to showers in the North-Central states here on Tuesday that will shift east into the Great Lakes for Wednesday. However, the trough will have a much better opportunity for advancement later this week and weekend, as another system moves from the Central Rockies northeast into central Canada Thursday and Friday.

The cold front to the system will sweep east through the country this weekend and there is potential for significant precipitation from it from Texas to Michigan eastward. With the deep trough coming through right behind it, there could be enough potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain. That will pass right over the areas in the deepest drought east of the Rockies and bring some relief. It could also slow down fieldwork and harvest.

Though temperatures will likely take a significant dive behind that cold front, the air is sourced from the Pacific and will have spent several days in the West before pushing eastward. Therefore, it will have had a chance to moderate, being closer to normal for this time of year. Colder air almost always comes from northern Canada or the Arctic and not the Pacific.

Even though the upper-level trough will be pushing across the Eastern U.S. this weekend, another will move into the Western U.S. at the same time. This trough will also be coming from the Pacific but will not have trouble pushing a ridge out of the way. Instead, it should cruise through the U.S. fairly easily next week.

Another system should develop on the leading edge of the trough and push across the U.S., but the precipitation pattern is a bit unknown at this time. Models will have to work out just how much moisture will be available and how strong the low-pressure center will be to produce rainfall.

But we should see another rise in temperatures ahead of the system followed by another drop behind it. With all the systems moving through and the stronger troughs to produce them, temperatures will be rather volatile during the rest of October. We should see more precipitation over more areas east of the Rockies for the next two weeks as well.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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