DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West with a ridge in the Central and East. The trough will attempt to move eastward throughout the week but won't succeed until this weekend, pushing the ridge off the East Coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

At the same time this weekend, another trough will move into the West, sliding eastward next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement this week, but disagree on a system moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front should be shifting east across the U.S. over the weekend into Monday with scattered showers. Another system may move through the West over the weekend and then through the rest of the U.S. next week. Models disagree on precipitation and temperature. But most likely, we should see warmer temperatures over the weekend despite the front moving through, but a drop in temperature as the next system moves through.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...100 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...13 AT 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7AM CDT MONDAY...PHOENIX, AZ 1.96 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West with a ridge in the Central and East. The trough will attempt to move eastward throughout the week but won't succeed until this weekend, pushing the ridge off the East Coast. At the same time, another trough will move into the West, sliding eastward next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement this week, but disagree on a system moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front should be shifting east across the U.S. over the weekend into Monday with scattered showers. Another system may move through the West over the weekend and then through the rest of the U.S. next week. Models disagree on precipitation and temperature. But most likely, we should see warmer temperatures over the weekend despite the front moving through, but a drop in temperature as the next system moves through.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers, some areas of heavier rain, and a touch of snow in Montana were all recorded over the weekend. Additional rain will move through Tuesday through Friday as a pair of systems continue to move along a front that has stalled off to the south. All of the precipitation is not favorable for harvest this week, and progress should be slower. Cooler temperatures are also producing frosts and freezes, common for this time of year.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A few showers went through over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A front has stalled in the region and will be active as systems move along it throughout the week.

Showers will be much more consistent farther north, though. Periods of precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was mostly dry over the weekend, though a few showers fell in the west on Sunday. That was due to a front that will be stalled in the northwestern portion of the region for the next several days. Systems moving along the front will continue shower chances for most of the week in the northwest, before the front gets pushed eastward this weekend. Overall, showers may limit some harvest in the northwest, but most areas should have good weather to continue work. Showers this weekend may push plans back a bit for some though.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dry weather since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the region. Though the Lower Mississippi River is getting a small boost in water levels from rain that fell in the Ohio Valley last week, that will not last long as the water makes its way to the Gulf. Drier conditions this week will not be helpful. Some showers moving through this weekend may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers are now scattered in central Brazil as the wet season rainfall is underway, seemingly for good. That may take some time to fill in areas that were very dry over the last two to three weeks, but is overall favorable for soybean planting and establishment.

Consistent fronts moving north from Argentina are providing good moisture for corn and soybean establishment in the south.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through over the weekend with scattered showers. Though it missed some areas, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. Soybean planting will get started later in October. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions are so far favorable.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers continued over eastern Europe over the weekend, which continues there for much of the week. Drier conditions in the northwest are a little concerning for winter wheat establishment, though not concerning enough as a system is forecast to move through these areas this weekend into next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers went through over the weekend, but were not as heavy as some might have hoped with overall drought still an issue for much of western Russia. Only isolated showers are in the forecast for this week along with cooler temperatures that may produce frosts across the north on occasion.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through eastern areas over the weekend, but much of Australia has been drier over the last couple of weeks, somewhat concerning for winter wheat and canola in some areas of the country. Where showers occurred and in others with good soil moisture, the dryness has not been all that concerning. Only limited showers are forecast to move through the country this week though, and drier areas are expanding if a few more systems fail to develop.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rain has been consistent in central China for the last several weeks. Although this had been favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment, rainfall has been a little too high in some areas and may be causing some flooding. Drier weather in the northeast has been more favorable for corn and soybean harvest. Scattered showers will continue this week before colder air descends through the country. That may produce some frosts for limited spots in central China. That would not be hazardous for too many spots, but may have some impact before the real start to winter occurs.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Isolated showers through Friday, mostly north. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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